Grading the preseason predictions
Looking back to see if we got anything right, and laugh at what we got wrong
As you know one of the things that bothers me is people who are happy to make a ton of predictions and then just forget about em when they don’t get any of them right. Kwest Thoughts doesn’t forget. We like accountability. It’s fun to look back and see how wide of the mark you were because, you’re supposed to get your predictions wrong. If sport was so easily predictable, where would the fun be?
Without further ado, it’s time for the annual look back at our preseason predictions to see how we did.
The 2024-25 Season Preview Post
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All numbers are from Fbref unless otherwise noted
Manchester City
City have achieved 1990's Atlanta Braves status. You pick them to win until they finally don’t win one.
Don’t get caught up by them dropping points early in the season. The only question with City is how many of their final 20 games are they going to win en route to another title?
How’d we do? C-
It finally caught up with City. The Blues didn’t do their usual drop a few points here and there in the first half of the season but instead their form catapulted off a cliff. (We dove into the reasons behind City’s struggles back in December). City won just one game from the start of November until Boxing Day. They rallied in the second half of the season but how many of their final 20 games are they going to win turned out to be just 13. All dynasties come to an end eventually.
Arsenal
How’d we do? B
89 points would have been good enough to win the league this year but Arsenal just didn’t get better. They scored fewer goals, conceded more, and their xG and xGA went the same way (some of this is down to the fact that they played a ton of minutes with only 10 men early in the season). They were still the second best team in the league and their underlying numbers back that up, but they still have a lot of work to do to get to the next level. Just goes to show you how hard that actually is.
Liverpool
How’d we do? C+
We get some points for correctly identifying that Liverpool not doing anything in the transfer window wouldn’t hamper them1 but it went downhill from there.
To quickly sum up those questions: no it was not the year Darwin Nunez would kick on. Who knows how long Salah can continue carrying this team but he certainly had another year in him. Waturo Endo started one Premier League game and played all of 273 minutes. It wasn’t an issue because Ryan Gravenberch became the holding midfielder no one saw coming.
I’m still Arne Slot skeptical over the long run but there’s no doubt he did a great job this year. He simplified roles and put his players in good positions that maximized their ability and was justly rewarded for it. Liverpool weren’t spectacular this year but they had a very solid foundation and got the job done week after week. That’s why their champions.
Aston Villa
How’d we do? A-
Villa did initially struggle with the added European matches - they had a record of 1W 3D 4L in the matches following Champions League fixtures - but they certainly didn’t struggle in Europe. They were top of the table for most of the League Phase and ultimately finished in the top eight to go straight to the round of 16.
I think I got Villa about as right as can be. There was a lot to like about them, but the numbers didn’t lie. Villa righted in the ship in the second half of the season. They won 9 of their last 12 games, but after winning just 10 of their first 26 games that wasn’t enough to get them back into the top four. They finished three points back and missed the Champions League on goal difference. Vindication for the numbers.
Tottenham
How’d we do? B-
It was very hard to get a read on Spurs. They had a very weird season two years ago and followed that up with another even weirder season. They finished 17th, won the Europa League, and had a positive goal difference right up until the final day of the season.
They once again got off to a really good start and then fell off an steeper cliff than Manchester City did. And this one didn’t seem to end.
The two big concerns - squad depth and where are the goals going to come from - turned out to be their undoing. Spurs got decimated by injuries throughout the season, especially to their back line, preventing them being able to defend. Dominic Solanke only scored nine goals in the league, leaving a pretty big void.
Spurs scored 64 goals this season - joint eighth most in the league and far more than you’d expect from a team finishing 17th - so it’s a bit weird to say they didn’t score enough goals.
Spurs’ goals came in bunches. They scored three or more goals 11 times, they scored four or more goals six times. But the big number is they played 16 matches that were decided by a single goal and they won just one of them. When they needed goals, they couldn’t get them.
Chelsea
How’d we do? B-
All things considered this season could have been a lot worse for Chelsea. Maresca got a good handle on the circus early on so it never became an issue. The team’s underlying numbers stayed solid and they got off to a flying start thanks to Cole Palmer continuing to be Cole Palmer in the first half of the season, while Enzo Fernandez really solidified himself as one of the best midfielders in the league.
They hit a wobble in the middle of the campaign but closed out solidly but unspectacularly. This all coincided with Maresca getting his fingerprints on the team much more as the season progressed. It’s why I’m a bit bearish on their future prospects, it doesn’t seem to fit the players they have? Chelsea’s defense got very good at the end of the season but they were struggling for goals. They scored justtt enough down the stretch (they won five of their last 10 games 1-0). With the talent level they have, this team should be scoring more.
Newcastle
How’d we do? B+
First of all, Yankubah Minteh is turning out to be a star. A bit of a loss for Newcastle there.
As for the rest of their season, it turned out to be exactly as weird as you’d think. The Magpies struggled out of the gate, winning just five of their first 15 games. They then won six on the bounce, followed by losing four of their next six, and then promptly went on another five game winning streak. From mid-December through mid-April they won 13 of 17 Premier League matches. It vaulted them back up the table and into fifth place, and this year the top five was the new top four.
Brighton
We’re only including them because we included them last year.
Their biggest loss this summer was manager Roberto de Zerbi but to be honest I don’t think De Zerbi was making them much better than what their talent level was. Brighton’s issue is simply their talent level. This team is still a far cry off the team that qualified for Europe two years ago.
They’re rebuilding, it’s going to take time. Young players have to settle and grow. 10th place is their ceiling this season.
How’d we do? C+
Damn, I made a hard commitment to 10th place there. Brighton were in 10th through February until manager Fabian Hürzeler decided to change things up by pressing less and attacking more. Brighton won four in a row which briefly put them back into the fight for the European places. That didn’t last but they won four of their last five to jump up to eighth.
Manchester United
There’s too much to post here so let’s just look at the highlights.
That brings us to United’s young core of Kobbie Mainoo, Alejandro Garnacho, and Rasmus Hojlund. All three players had fantastic seasons last year for their respective ages, but in terms of being the top guys on a Champions League level team they were nowhere near that level.
All three are still developing and in three years time they could be among the best players at their respective positions. But for this season United can’t call upon the 2027-28 version of these players, they can only utilize the 2024-25 versions. If United want these guys to be their key players and make the Champions League they’re going to need a bit more from Kobbie Mainoo. If they want to run their attack through Garnacho again this season, they’ll probably need him to make ‘the leap’ if they want to finish in the top four.
They’re also going to need a lot more from Marcus Rashford. You need your highest paid players to play like your highest paid players. However there are legitimate compatibility questions here. Can you get the best version of Rashford along with the best versions of Garnacho and/or Hojlund, or is it only possible to get the best version of one or two of them?
Last season United were able to overcome a horrible structure and finish eighth simply because for the most part they had more talent than their opponents. That was essentially the floor for this talent level. Even with so many players having bad seasons and an expected goal difference of -0.33 per game, the talent on the team wasn’t finishing below eighth.
It’s almost impossible for that not to happen this year for the simple reason that if United are anywhere near as poor as they were last year, it’s hard to see Ten Hag surviving that and the list of managers who - at the bare minimum - can put in a better defensive structure is not a short one.
How’d I do? F
I’ve already spent many words on what’s gone wrong this season along with how we’ve gotten into this mess. For my thoughts on how the season ended, check out The Fergie Fledglings podcast. Thinking about where we go from here is perhaps something for another post.
As for the predictions it’s pretty simple. Not only did Hojlund, Garnacho, and Mainoo not take a step forward, they all regressed. That quickly put a ceiling on how good United could be.
As for me, I broke the cardinal rule of thinking things can’t get worse. They can always get worse. United were better than they were last year under Ten Hag, but by no means were they good and he was rightly replaced.
An average manager could probably get better results than this team and, well, United hired Ruben Amorim who was less concerned with results and more focused on implementing his ‘style’ on a team that has maybe one player who can be suited to that style2. Amorim did get a better defensive structure in - the shots against dropped from 17.3 to 10.7- but the shot quality remained high and the goals continued to be conceded.
Last year United’s individual talent was enough to keep them from dropping below eighth. This year there was less talent around with Marcus Rashford departing midway through the campaign despite leading the team in goals in January, while Amorim’s new system certainly looked like it was preventing many players from performing at their best.
Final Predictions
Hey this isn’t that bad if you just ignore the part where I had the teams who finished 17th and 15th finishing 4th and 5th respectively.
You’ll have to take my word for it but the original draft of the preview post had Chelsea finishing fourth with Spurs in eighth. Then I let Chelsea’s poor preseason performances affect my decision making far too much and I decided to move them down because I am a coward!
I moved Spurs up for no other reason than I didn’t think United, Newcastle, Villa, or Chelsea would finish in the top four and I needed to put someone there. I threw in Spurs partially because wildcard but mostly because I didn’t think anyone else was breaking through.
And ultimately I was right about that (though Nottingham Forest did a hell of a job trying to crash the party). Ultimately the season ended in a very familiar way. The top four was comprised of four of the the “Top Six” clubs. They were the best four in expected goal difference too. Fifth and Sixth place went to the two other teams who had finished in the top four the past two years. Nuno Espírito Santo finished seventh as he seems to always do.
Outside the Premier League we got some great stories in the cup. The season may have ended in a familiar way, but it’s the twists and turns the Premier League throws at us along the way that make it great.
spoiler alert, we will have a different stance on this come season preview time. Not signing anyone typically doesn’t hurt in the short term, but it causes issues in the long term
And he often played him out of position