Manchester United - How did we get here? Recruitment strategy
Whether intentional or not, Manchester United emulated a grander version of the recruitment strategy employed by one of their geographical neighbors, with similar results
How did we get here? is a loosely connected series looking at the various different reasons Manchester United have ended up where they are. Click here for the first post - How did we get here? Strikers
The term “Top Six” didn’t mean anything in the Premier League prior to the Abu Dhabi takeover at Manchester City. This was the era of “The Big Four,” comprising Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Liverpool.
From 2003-04 through 2008-09 the Big Four made up the top four finishers in five of the six Premier League seasons. During that six year span those four clubs combined for 12 semifinal appearances in the Champions League, five final appearances, and three wins. All four clubs made at least one appearance in the final and there was a period of three consecutive seasons where three of the clubs each reached the semifinals. It was a very apt nickname.
For six years the only team to break up the Big Four hegemony was… Everton.
In 2004-05 the Toffees had just sold Wayne Rooney to Manchester United for £27 million. They reinvested the money fairly well and took advantage of a soft Premier League season to finish fourth with just 61 points - the second lowest fourth place point total in Premier League history.
Credit to Everton. They realized that league position was likely a fluke created by some very favorable circumstances. They recognized that they couldn’t compete with the likes of the Big Four so they didn’t try to. They decided that rather than go beyond their means to chase an unrealistic goal they’d just focus on being the best of everyone else.
Everton’s recruitment policy reflected this. They made some shrewd signings from the bottom of the Premier League and the Championship - like Phil Jagielka and Leighton Baines - but Everton also decided to be a haven for players not quite good enough to play for the Big Four (and later Top Six) clubs. You may not be good enough to play in the Champions League, but you could certainly help us stay better than the rest of the league!
Over the next decade plus Everton the list of players Everton brought in from the top clubs was quite extensive.
It started with Phil Neville signing for Manchester United when he was looking for more regular first team action than he was getting at Old Trafford1. Two years later Tim Howard followed. The pair were eventually followed to the blue half of Merseyside by Louis Saha, Darron Gibson, Tom Cleverley (by way of a loan at Aston Villa), Morgan Schneiderlin, and Wayne Rooney.
That’s just from Manchester United!2
Over time Gareth Barry and Fabian Delph came over from Manchester City. Samuel Eto’o and Romelu Lukaku3 signed from Chelsea, while Theo Walcott and Alex Iwobi came from Arsenal. When Spurs made the jump into the “Top Six” territory it wasn’t long before Aaron Lennon was discarded to Everton. Tottenham originally poached Steven Pienaar, but when the South African flopped in North London he was sent back to Everton just 12 months later. Then there was Spurs washout Gylfi Sigurðsson who came by way of Swansea City, while Andros Townsend came via Newcaslte and Crystal Palace.
When Jose Mourinho was named Manchester United manager in the summer of 2016 no one was surprised that Juan Mata immediately started being heavily linked with move to Everton. That was just where discarded top six players went!
You can’t say the strategy didn’t work. The Toffees finished 11th in 2006 but then fired off eight consecutive seasons of finishing between fifth and eighth as the league moved from the Big Four to the Top Six era. Two consecutive 11th place finishes in the Roberto Martinez years were followed by three more seasons in seventh or eighth.
Overall Everton finished eighth or higher in 10 out of 13 seasons. 10 out of 13 times they were in the top two for the best of the rest and twice they finished in the top six during the actual Top Six era. They were accomplishing exactly what they set out to accomplish.
It all fell apart for Everton for two reasons.
The first was a general shift in the market. The teams Everton were competing against suddenly realized that rather than spending big money on players who knew the league but weren’t good enough to play for the Champions League level sides, it was better to find players who were probably a year or two away from being good enough to play for those sides, give them a year to grow, then have a player who belongs on a Champions League team in your team for a year or two.
The other was Everton just began spending larger transfer fees on players. Andre Gomes, Yerry Mina, Lucas Digne from Barcelona. Richarlison, James Rodriguez, Moise Kean, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, and Davy Klassen all cost a pretty penny. Some of those guys were really good and were sold for profits, but most didn’t succeed. Even the ones who did find some success didn’t lead to on-pitch results that made the financial outlays worthwhile - ultimately putting Everton into the dire financial position they’re in today.
What does any of this have to do with Manchester United?
Whether they know it or not, Manchester United have been undertaking the same basic transfer strategy as Everton albeit on a grander scale. Whereas Everton were taking the castoffs of English football’s royalty, Manchester United have been taking the castoffs of Europe’s elite.
You can argue it started when United signed Juan Mata from Chelsea in January 2014, but we’re gonna say it really started when United signed Bastien Schweinsteiger once Bayern Munich decided they were done with him. You could count the number of good games Schweinsteiger had on one hand and he just never looked up for it at United.
Schweinsteiger was bad enough that United should have learned their lesson but they did not. The next year they signed PSG’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic on a “free transfer” that actually cost them well over £20 million4. The club went dormant for a few years but dove back into this strategy following the COVID 19 pandemic.
First through the door was another former PSG striker in Edinson Cavani. A year later Real Madrid decided Raphael Varane didn’t have much of a future and shipped him to Old Trafford. Less than a month later a huge outlay was made to sign another former Real player when Cristiano Ronaldo came via Juventus5. The following season saw Casemiro boarding the Madrid to Manchester flight.
Two years after winning the Champions League Chelsea decided they weren’t interested in renewing Mason Mount’s contract. Lucky for Mount United decided that was a great opportunity to pay £55 million for him. Last summer United swooped in for the pair of Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui when Bayern Munich decided they were surplus to requirements.
It’d be one thing if this strategy had been employed by the old regime and that was the reason they lost their jobs, but these signings have been made over the course of three different regimes!
Like Everton, not all these signings were bad. Some played key roles in helping United win a few trophies or finish in the top four to qualify for the Champions League.
The major difference between United and Everton is the latter were content with who they are and where they were. Since they weren’t competing with the top guys and just trying to stay better than everyone else, taking players who just weren’t good enough to get into the top teams wasn’t the worst idea in the world.
That wasn’t the case for United. They were still trying to compete with the top clubs in the world. They had ambitions of rising to the top of the Premier League and the Champions League. How are you supposed to overtake other clubs if you’re signing the players those very clubs deem no longer good enough to play at this level? That’s a major flaw in United’s strategy.
Similar to Everton, it hasn’t entirely been the aging stars that have sunk United. The big problem has been the vast sums of money spent on the other, younger, talent that has simply not panned out.
With every mistake the club made came another decision of trying to spend out money to get out of that mistake. Over time those mistakes have created the financial mess that United now find themselves in.
Except this strategy is what’s gotten United into this mess. Swinging and missing on young potential stars - especially at a high rate - is always going to be costly. However those mistakes don’t have to be devastating because you can often sell those now 23-24 year old players on if not for outright profit then for at least book profit6. Even Manchester United can.
When you sign these young potential superstars, you’re not anticipating that they’re going to be out of the team in three years time. The goal is to sign this player and not need to spend money on that position for at least half a decade.
When you’re spending big on a player on a one year contract, you’re acknowledging that you’re just going to have to spend money on that position again a year later. When you spend big on a 28 year old or a 30 year old midfielder, you know the chances are really high that in three years you’re not going to be able to sell them for any kind of money and you’ll need to spend big again to replace them.
And if you didn’t know this was the likely outcome… then you are not qualified to be in charge of building a top Premier League squad and it wouldn’t be all that surprising when most of your signings fail.
This came in the midst of Everton’s two game Champions League campaign
And we’re not even counting James Garner (academy) and Donny van de Beek (loan)
This was actually a good signing
Paul Pogba also joined from Juventus but he doesn’t quite count here as Juve would have loved to keep him if they could afford him
It did cost Juventus £100m to sign Ronaldo from Real Madrid, but Real weren’t exactly upset he was leaving and Juve hardly stood in his way from departing Turin.
Chelsea’s impending £25m purchase of Jadon Sancho will ultimately be a book profit for United