Are Nottingham Forest actually this good?
Forest have hung around the top four longer than anyone expected. They've done it by taking the opposite approach to everyone else
There may not be a worse nickname in football than “the top six clubs.”
The term became a regular part of our vocabulary about a decade ago referring to the two Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham. The six clubs with more money than anyone else in the Premier League. From 2014-15 through 2018-19 those six clubs occupied the top six places of the league four times. However, since 2019 only once have the “top six” finished in the top six places of the Premier League.
At this point it’s safe to say that in any given year, someone will be crashing the party. In the last two years Newcastle and Aston Villa have tried to force the issue even more, forgoing snatching up one of the Europa League spots and going all the way to stealing one of the coveted Champions League places!
This year the team threatening to crash the party is… Bournemouth - a team that was promoted in 2022 and just narrowly avoided going straight back down. Two years later they’re seventh in the league, three points out of the Champions League spots. All this coming after selling their 19 goal striker for £65 million last summer - though we know big sales don’t have as much impact as generally believed.
This doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Per Fbref Bournemouth are tied for third in expected goal difference while understat’s expected points1 model has them holding that spot all on their own. All this suggests they should be well higher than seventh. Pretty incredible for a team that plays in a ground that holds just over 11 thousand people.
*Earpiece crackles*
Nottingham Forest are doing what now?
We’re pretty familiar with Nottingham Forest - a team promoted in 2022 who just narrowly avoided going straight back down. Two years later they hit some nice form in October, right around when Manchester City began collapsing. Due to the wild inconsistency of the league and it being early in the season, the table can do some pretty crazy things. Suddenly Nottingham Forest found themselves pretty high up.
It was cute. It was a nice take-your-screenshots now moment because eventually things will start to look normal again and Forest will slip back down to the bottom half.
Forest lost back to back games to Arsenal and Newcastle. They barely squeaked by Ipswich Town before taking another drubbing from Manchester City. Everything was proceeding according to plan.
Except then Forest knocked off six wins on the bounce and seven of their last eight. Here we are after 22 games and Nottingham Forest are not going away. They’re third in the Premier League, four points ahead of fourth. They’re equally as close to top of the table Liverpool as they are to fifth place Manchester City. That’s as firm a seat in the top four as you can have.
As expected, there is some over performance here. Forest are ninth in expected goal difference. Understat’s expected points has them at 33.73 (let’s call it 34) points. That 10 point differential is the largest over performance in the league and there’s not a close second2.
That’s not to say it’s all luck. Forest have conceded the third fewest goals in the league and have the third lowest expected goals against. Only Arsenal have a lower xG per shot allowed.
Defensively Forest are elite, which is something we’ve come to expect from a Nuno Espirito Santo team. It’s the attack where things are much more pedestrian. Forest are 13th in shots per match. Their 0.10 xG per shot is just below average, while their average shot distance of 17.7 is the second highest in the league. They’ve partially made up for this by being decently potent at set pieces - the great equalizer.
Forest are not going to do a Leicester and chase down Liverpool. They are however well situated to stay in the top four. The target for fourth place is usually 70 points, Forest are currently on pace for 76. Behind them Chelsea are on pace for 69 points while fifth and sixth place Manchester City and Newcastle are on pace for just 65. Even if Forest play the final 16 games of the season at their 1.5 expected points rate, they’d tack on an additional 25 points to give them a total of 69.
Very few people expect Nottingham Forest to hang on and qualify for the Champions League, but then again no one expected them to still be here right now. If ever they were to have a chance to do it, it would be this season, a season where Forest’s tactics have been the perfect antidote for what the rest of the league is doing.
It would be a bit harsh to call Nottingham Forest counter attack merchants.
That term has taken on a very negative connotation. These are not your old school hard men who park the bus, get stuck in, go in hard to tackles, and physically batter their opponents. They are not a club that just hoofs the ball down the pitch and fights to win the first and second balls.
Broadly speaking though, they are a counter attacking team. They average the lowest possession in the league. Their opponents take the second most touches in the attacking third. Per MarkStats.club they play the deepest defensive line in the league and have the sixth lowest field tilt. When they attack, they’re the most direct team in the league.
Their off the ball style is more Real Madrid than the Tony Pulis or David Moyes setups you may be thinking of. They do have an old school physical target man in Chris Wood, but he’s surrounded in a team by players with very high technical abilities. Their attacks come from precise off-ball movements and intricate passing patterns within their very quick attacks. Forest don’t create many high turnovers - third fewest in the league - but their ruthlessly efficient when they do. Their seven goals scored from high turnovers leads the league. 21 percent of their high turnovers result in shot attempts3.
It’s very difficult to finish in the top four - let alone win the league - by primarily being a counter attacking team. That’s because the better you are the more often you’ll have more of the ball and less space to run in behind your opponent. Just look at 2019-20 Manchester United, they wouldn’t have sniffed the top four had they not figured out how to play against low blocks during Project Restart.
Playing on the counter is not a bad tactic in football. It’s a great tactic in the cups where simply not losing can help you advance. For smaller clubs in the Premier League, it’s probably the most effective tactic at either helping you stay up or punching above your weight. That’s why so many teams do it.
Counter attacking can help you score some big results against the European-level clubs at the top of the table. But the lower down the table you go the more you’ll start coming up against teams that simply have the same strategy as you. You’ll have to play with the ball more or the possession will be even. The lack of talent will be exposed and you’ll struggle to win games consistently. You’ll be nice and safe, but you can’t really move up in the table.
That was true a little as five years ago when about 11 or 12 teams’ primary tactic was to setup in a low block. But this is not five years ago.
The last few years has seen a rise in popularity for playing more expansive possession based football. This is the style that is considered playing on the front foot compared to the negative reactive counter attacking based style. Teams are holding the ball more, playing much slower, opting for control and safe buildup patterns. Just take a look at how much slower the league as a whole has gotten in their buildup patterns.
Opta’s data only goes back to the 2022-23 season, not very long ago. To dive deeper into the picture we could look at MarkStats again who provided a “directness” stat for prior seasons up until 2019-20. The average “directness” for Premier League teams in 2019-20 was 42.26. By the 2022-23 season that number had fallen to 39.53 indicating teams have been slowing down since at least 2019-20.
This shift doesn’t come from one or two teams slowing down to super drastic levels,4 it comes from a lot of teams making a concerted effort to slow down. Here’s how the same chart looks for this season in the Premier League.
Playing expansive possession football isn’t just for the big boys anymore. These days, everyone is trying to do it. That includes the likes bottom of the table Southampton (at least until they sacked Russel Martin), Wolves, Brighton, hell even West Ham originally brought Julien Lopetgegui in to play more of a possession brand of football this season.
Possession based football has it’s strengths and merits but like any system, also has its weaknesses. One particular weakness of possession based systems is they are particularly vulnerable to quick direct attacks, IE counter attacks.
Well ain’t that nice if you’re Nottingham Forest.
Whereas five years ago there were 11 or 12 teams playing low blocks just waiting for their chance to get forward, there’s now almost the same amount of teams who want to play with the ball, spread out, and pick their chances to attack.
Those teams all now share that big vulnerability in exactly what your biggest strength is! That makes it a lot easier to suddenly rack up wins and move up the table.
Take another glance at the top left quadrant of the above graphic again. Sitting right on top of Nottingham Forest is Bournemouth - the other tiny club that’s crashing the European party.
Bournemouth are the opposite side of the same coin as Nottingham Forest. They also like to play without the ball (5th lowest possession), and hit their opponents with very quick and direct attacks.
Forest are much more passive defensively, They defend deep in their own box. Bournemouth play one of the highest lines in the league. They’re much more aggressive, having the third lowest passes per defensive action in the league.
The Cherries press high and they press very aggressively to keep their opponents far away from their goal. Bournemouth’s opponents have taken the second most touches in their own third of the pitch. 32.8 percent of the total touches in Bournemouth’s matches occur in Bournemouth’s attacking third/their opponents own third of the pitch, the fourth highest total in the league.
If Bournemouth get played through they can be in trouble, but their high pressing approach pays off for them. They lead the league in ball recoveries in the final third, and they take those recoveries and efficiently turn them into scoring chances. The Cherries are fourth in the league in shots per game and fifth in non-penalty xG per game. They’ve been letdown by poor finishing - only Manchester United has a lower npG-xG.
Just like Nottingham Forest it’s a great time to be Bournemouth. Their aggressive high press and direct attacking is perfect for a league where so many teams are insistent on playing out from the back and are vulnerable to direct attacks.
Football tactics are pretty simple. Your goal is nullify your opponents strength and attack their weaknesses. When everyone conforms to the same style, you’re giving up any advantage you may have had and making it more difficult to win games, because if everyone is playing the same style, the team with the best players is going to win.
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are zigging while the rest of the league zags and are reaping the benefits. They are solid teams, but in previous years this level of solid would have seen you maybe threatening a Europa League place, this season it has them firmly threatening the Champions League simply because the rest of the league is playing right into their strengths.
The odds are still against Nottingham Forest to finish in the top four and secure a place in the Champions League. To achieve that, they’ll need to maintain their over performance and rely on striker Chris Wood to sustain the best form of his career.
However, the tactical approaches of many teams in the league have created an opportunity for Forest to exceed expectations. As long as opponents continue to play into Forest’s strengths, the likelihood of them defying the odds and surpassing their goals only grows.In order to do that they’ll need to keep over performing and hope striker Chris Wood continues to be in the form of his life.
Which comes with all the major caveats that it’s understat
West Ham have the next highest total winning 4.42 more points than expected
Opta has not published the data from this season but last season Arsenal lead the league in this metric with 19.63%
Manchester City already have that covered