Are Manchester United back in the Top Four race?
Back to back wins have Erik Ten Hag's side within touching distance of the Champions League places again - but is a top four finish actually feasible?
Two wins in the space of three days has seen Erik Ten Hag’s Manchester United vault back up to sixth in the Premier League table. More importantly, United are now just eight points off the top four with their next match being a showdown against fourth place Aston Villa.
The beauty of midweek fixtures is they present the opportunity for things to change quickly. Just a week ago United were a team squandering away in ninth place. They had won just one of their last six Premier League matches and had just let a two goal lead slip away to Newport County, the 15th place side in League Two. With 11 points separating United and fourth place Aston Villa, a top four charge was already all but out of reach.
United may have only gained three points in the table but the difference between an 11 point gap and an eight point gap seems massive. That’s particularly true with United facing Villa this Sunday. By this time next week United could be just five points out of fourth place, and they could be just three points off the potential back door of fifth place qualification.
With United out of Europe and looking at only one game a week for the remainder of the season that gap doesn’t seem so big anymore does it?
Considering the general inconsistencies and the fact that United almost exclusively pick up their points three at a time, they’re likely going to live within three and nine points outside of fourth place for the remainder of the season. When you’re that close, just a minor good run of form can drastically change things. That in and of itself will serve to provide the illusion that United are very much in the top four race. The question is, are they actually?
Overcoming a six point deficit is far easier said than done. After 23 games in the 2019-20 season United were also just six points off the top four but it took until the second to last game of the season for them to move into the Champions League places. When Project Restart began they were only three points back of fourth place but still took until the final week of the season to break through.
One difference between that season and this one is United’s underlying numbers showed they should have had more points than they actually did1. This season United are overachieving against their expected points by the widest margin in the league.
To really answer this question we need to look at the bigger picture. It’s not about how many points you have right now, it’s about how many you have at the end of May. Or rather, how many you’re going to need to have at the end of May to finish in the top four.
In three of the last five seasons, the team that finished fourth in the table finished on 71 points2. Over the last 10 seasons, the fourth place team has averaged 71.2 points. After 23 matches Aston Villa are on pace to finish with 76 points, while fifth place Tottenham are on pace for 72.7.
If we take that information and for argument’s sake we’ll assume Villa’s pace will drop off slightly, it’s still safe to say you’re going to need at least 71 if not 72 points for a fourth place finish.
Where does this leave Manchester United?
Getting to 71 points is going to be a tall task to say the least. United currently are on 38 points after 23 games. To get to the magical 71 points, they’ll need to pick up 33 points over their final 15 games. To do that, they’ll essentially have to win at least 10 of their remaining 15 matches - and that’s if they draw three of the remaining five3.
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How feasible would that be to achieve? United still have to play City, Liverpool, and Arsenal - the three teams currently in the title race. Two of those matches will be at Old Trafford and United won each of those corresponding fixtures last season. Replicating those results sure would go a long way.
However United need to do more than just replicating results from last season. Take a look at United’s 15 remaining fixtures and the result they got in the corresponding fixture last season - swapping in the three newly promoted clubs for the three clubs that were relegated last season.
That’s only eight wins and three draws from these 15 fixtures, which leave them six points short of the 71 point goal. There’s certainly some fixtures there that look like they can be improved upon. Chelsea away and Newcastle at home don’t seem as daunting as they might have been last season, but you also have to ensure nothing else turns the wrong way, such as the victories over Arsenal and Liverpool.
While the fixture list does look attainable the biggest question of all will be not only can United maintain that kind of form over the next four months but can they even hit that kind of form?
The best run of form United have had under Erik Ten Hag was the middle third of the 2022-23 season, which started right before the World Cup but was basically that period right after it. Over the 12 matches comprising the middle third of the Premier League season United won eight and drew two4. That comes out to 2.17 points per match, which is just shy of the 2.2 ppm pace needed to get 33 points.
I mentioned the 2019-20 season before and how it long it took to actually move into the top four. That only happened after United hit a new level during Project Restart, winning 2.22 points per match over the final nine games of the season. But that was only nine games. United need to stretch that out to 15.
The last time United had any kind of long sustained run like this was the 2020-21 season. Following the 2-1 loss in the Champions League to Istanbul Basaksehir, United responded by winning 18 of their next 28 league games, drawing nine, and losing just once5 - 2.25 points per match. Replicating that form over the last 15 matches would see United finish between 71 and 72 points. This would undoubtedly be a tremendous accomplishment considering where they are now, but it would leave them at the mercy of whether or not Spurs and Villa’s form actually does dip.
United have one advantage over Villa. They’re no longer in Europe so they’ll only be playing once a week from here on out (Spurs also only play once a week and they’re out of the FA Cup too).
The hope would be with Villa also fighting for success in Europe their domestic form may suffer. This is Villa’s first season in Europe and hopefully they won’t be able to handle the workload.
While comparing the start of the season with the end of the season isn’t an apples to apples comparison, we can take a look at how Villa handled the Thursday-Sunday grind of the Conference League in the first half of the season, though that might not be welcome news for United fans.
From the end of the September international break through the end of the Conference League group stage, Villa won 10 of their 13 Premier League matches and drew two others. That 2.46 points per match is far better then their form since the group stages. United fans have to hope playing in Europe doesn’t wake them back up. There’s also the chance they fall out of Europe quickly, and thus only have to play once a week. However if Villa defeat United on Sunday, they’d only have to win every other match over their final 14 games to reach 71 points.
If United are going to make a charge to finish in the top four they’ll have to do two things they’ve never before under Erik Ten Hag. The first is hit the aforementioned level of form and sustain for longer than they’ve done since the Ole Gunnar Solskjaer era.
Secondly, and this is the big one, they’ll have to win an away match against a top nine side. This group comprises four of their remaining matches, with two other away games coming against teams that have already won at Old Trafford this season. If United can’t win away from home, nothing else in this conversation matters.
There is of course the back door. With the expanded Champions League beginning next season there is the possibility that fifth place earns a Champions League spot. Let’s just do the numbers real quick, the average points total of the fifth place team over the last 10 years has been 68.1 points. Spurs are currently on pace for 72.5 points, 68 points seems like a good target.
That would mean United only need 30 points over their last 15 matches. That’s still maybe a little too lofty of a target but it’s certainly a more attainable one. Then they’d have to hope that England get the extra Champions League spot.
Right now England has the third highest UEFA co-efficient behind Germany and Italy. Teams like Manchester City and Liverpool will likely go far in their tournaments bringing the co-efficient up, but not only will United need to hope their biggest rivals do well, they’ll also still need teams like Aston Villa and Brighton to win a few knockout rounds just to be safe. United (and Newcastle’s) horrible group stage in the Champions League can hurt them here.
Just eight points back with 15 games to play you can’t say United aren’t in the top four race, but the bigger picture shows just how high of a mountain this really is to climb. The bookies currently have Spurs as the slight favorite over Villa to finish fourth with United as a distant third choice. That feels about right.
Crazier things have happened though… you can never say never.
*Authors note: The original version of this post incorrectly stated United won 2.56 points per match during Project Restart. It has been updated to the correct number of 2.22.
Expected points model from understat
The other two seasons were both either partially or entirely effected by COVID. Perhaps that had an affect on things, perhaps not.
Nine wins and six draws would also get them 33 points but United have only drawn eight league matches over the entire Erik Ten Hag era. Getting six draws out of their next 15 seems like the most unlikely part of the whole scenario. Even if they win the 10 matches drawing three of the remaining is tough.
Plus won a lot of cup games and won the Carabao Cup
Ironically during this run of form all United fans could do was talk about how bad the team was and how the manager needed to be sacked.
This substack should have a banner/advertisment reading something like “AS HEARD ON TALK OF THE DEVILS PODCAST BY THE ATHLETIC” 😁 Good job Pauly!
Really good thoughts.
I personally resigned to finishing top 6 as the most realistic. And hoping that a good run might help build a foundation for next season.