Optimism abounds but Ruben Amorim has a very tough task on his hands
Manchester United fans are excited for Ruben Amorim to get to work at Old Trafford, and he sure has a lot of work to do
Manchester United dismissed Erik Ten Hag at the end of October, marking him as the third consecutive full-time manager who failed to complete a third season. He also became the third manager in a row to lose his job within the same calendar year he was granted a contract extension.
For the first time, however, United has swiftly appointed a full-time successor, Ruben Amorim, immediately after a managerial departure. While this quick transition is unique, the environment Amorim inherits is all too familiar.
As with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick before him, Amorim is buoyed by a wave of short-term optimism, partly because of his predecessor's departure and partly due to excitement around his impressive track record. Amorim led Sporting CP during a turbulent period, turning the club around and preventing Portugal’s “Big Three” from shrinking to a “Big Two.” He ultimately delivered two league titles and two Portuguese League Cups and was linked to several major European clubs over the summer.
As if that wasn’t enough, Amorim’s stock rose even higher last week when his Sporting side thrashed Manchester City 4-1 in a thrilling Champions League match. The Sporting players threw Amorim in the air as they celebrated his final match at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. The match didn’t just show off Amorim’s tactical nous, but also his connection with his players, something United badly need between their players and manager.
It would be naive to say the storm around Old Trafford has dissipated but the waters are certainly calmer. Another benefit to Amorim waiting an extra 10 days before officially starting as United boss.
When Ten Hag was sacked United sat 14th in the table, seven points out of the Champions League1, and five points out of the European spots all together. In the Europa League United were ranked 21st in the league phase, just three places above the qualification line.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s four games in charge did a lot to steady the ship. United won three of their four matches. More than that they gave the fans something to cheer about. United scored 11 goals in four games after scoring just 18 in their first 13 games - and if you remove the match against League One side Barnsley that number falls to just 11 goals in 12 games.
The situation now isn’t much different but it certainly feels different. United are still 13th in the table but only four points2 out of the Champions League and three points from the European spots. Their European campaign looks a lot more secure as they sit 15th, just three points out of the coveted top eight. Fitness wise United are also in a pretty good spot. There are even reports that Luke Shaw could be ready to return after the international break3.
Make no mistake though, while things are looking up at the moment Ruben Amorim still has a very very tough job on his hands. That is for both long and short term outlooks.
Given the gap to the Champions League/European places, the presence of youngsters such as Kobbie Mainoo and Alejandro Garnacho as well as the early success of new signings Matthijs de Ligt, Noussair Mazraoui, and Manuel Ugarte - who also has played for Amorim before - some would argue that no recent manager has walked into a better situation midseason.
That seems to be a bit rose tinted especially given how the last two weeks have gone. Even before Ten Hag was sacked I kept mulling over whether he was leaving the squad in a better or worse position than it was when Jose Mourinho was sacked in 2018.
There’s no question the worst short term situation belonged to Ralf Rangnick, but no one really expected much from him. We knew what the problem was with that team and no manager on earth would have solved it. Things were a bit better from a longer term perspective and we saw that play out. Erik Ten Hag came into a team who’s core was a year removed from a 74 point season,4 spent a lot of money to replace some key players and add a few others, and promptly won 75 points again. When Cristiano Ronaldo played that team still looked awful, when he didn’t they tended to win. Most of the fix was simply getting Ronaldo out.
The real comparison is between 2018 and 2024.
To adequately assess this we have to strip out as much hindsight as we can and remember what the sentiments were at the time. Back in 2018 there was a very large sentiment that the squad was much better than their position in the league was. Need I remind you that league position was sixth with the team winning 1.53 points per match5.
It was widely accepted that Jose Mourinho and his toxicity was what was holding that squad back. One of the things that ultimately hurt Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was the belief that this team simply needed a guy to roll the balls out at training and tell them to go play. We thought the team was that good!
There was also a level of acceptance that nine points was simply too far to claw back over the second half of the season. The day that Mourinho was sacked I wrote how every decision the interim manager makes should be with an eye towards answering questions about the squad for the future.
There was a lot of faith in Romelu Lukaku. We still believed that not only were Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial the future, but that Rashford was still a striker. We still hadn’t given up on Alexis Sanchez and people actually wanted to see more of Andreas Pereira!
It turns out Alexis Sanchez was in fact washed up. Lukaku never really hit that new level and wanted out. Rashford gave us a glimpse that he really could be the guy until that ankle injury against Liverpool derailed the last few months of his season - which is really the story of his whole career. It would take us another few months to finally close the door on Pereira!
Despite those things, it still seems like the long term talent was better in 2018 then it is now.
The Friday before the West Ham match Suwaid Fazal had a very good thread on the discrepancy in the talent level between the current squad and what we had back in 2018.
It comes down to two things: history and age.
In 2018 United had Paul Pogba right in the heart of their team. Pogba might not have ever hit the highs that were expected of him but at that point he was better than any midfielder United currently have. And at 25 years old, he was just entering his prime.
Kobbie Mainoo is the best midfielder United have developed in ages, but at just 19 years old he’s far from proven. Maybe he develops into a player better than Pogba but that’s no sure thing. Certainly not in the next three years.
Even if we want to compare Bruno to Pogba, United’s captain just turned 30. He’s far from the type of player you’d want to build around long term6 - or even in the short term. Manual Ugarte could probably be compared with Ander Herrera. Him being far younger than Herrera was in 2018 works in his favor but Herrera had more upside going forward than we’ve ever seen from the Uruguayan. United will need him to add that element to his game.
Casemiro should be looking at Nemanja Matic. The Croatian looked well past it at the end of Mourinho’s days only to discover the fountain of youth when Solskjaer took over. One would hope the same thing happens with Casemiro - who is three years older.
Perhaps Christian Eriksen can be compared with Juan Mata. When you include pre-assists the Dane has been involved in more goals than any other United player this season. On a technical level he’s proven to still be one of United’s best players, but where does he fit in Amorim’s system? Eriksen played in that wide attacking midfield like Mata did when he was at Spurs, but the past four years he’s been used as a deeper midfielder7. It’s hard to see him playing in Amorim’s double pivot.
Optimism for this squad centers on the attack, but even that feels uncertain. Amad is a gifted talent, though it’s still unclear if he’s ready to be a starting winger for a Champions League-caliber team. I remain hopeful about Rasmus Hojlund—especially given how Viktor Gyökeres, a similarly profiled forward, flourished under Amorim. However, despite the challenges of the Mourinho era, even Anthony Martial in 2018 was more proven than Hojlund is today.
The biggest issue is on the left wing. In 2018 it felt like Rashford could be the guy - albeit maybe as a striker- he just hadn’t been given the chance. In 2024, we know who Rashford is and we know what his ceiling is. Behind him is Alejandro Garnacho, a 19 year old with star potential who has emerged as United’s best attack the past two years.
As exciting as Garnacho is, if you look at his production compared to where Rashford was after the playing the same number of minutes in the league, Rashford comes out slightly ahead - especially when looking at how they performed in the matches they started.
Rashford came up as a striker and moved out on the wing8. Even back then he had different ways of playing and different ways of scoring goals. Garnacho is a winger who is trying to turn himself into a goal scoring winger but he lacks the same diversified finishing portfolio.
Garnacho has a fantastic attitude and a great work ethic. We’re all hoping he puts it all together and goes on to be a superstar but if Rashford had more upside and better numbers at the same age, is it fair to expect him to better than Rashford? He’s certainly not there yet.
United may only be four points out of the Champions League places but don’t let that fool you. Jumping 10 places in the league is no easy task. A 2019 study found that 77 percent of the statistical variance in the final league standings was already by matchweek 10. A new manager bringing about a new style and new underlying numbers can help change things, but history is still working against you. There’s a difference between jumping three or four places in the table vs eight or nine.
Last February Kwest Thoughts highlighted that you’d likely need around 70 points to finish in the top four. The good news is, this year it’ll likely be significantly less.
Just last week Ryan O’ Hanlon wrote that based on adjusted goal difference ratings, “the top of the league is weaker than it’s been since Leicester City won the league in 2016.” None of the teams battling for fourth place are currently on pace to get 70 points. With the expanded European format giving teams more games, I think it’s safe to say that target number will be lower this year.
However, even if you drop the target down to 65 points, United would need to win 1.85 points per match the rest of the way - a half point more per match than they’re currently getting. That’s no easy feat.
Solskjaer was nine points back when he took over and if it weren’t for a ridiculous win streak, he never would have had United close. But from when Solskjaer took over through the end of the season United won the third most points in the league and we’re third in expected points. That’s indicative of the squad they had that season. Everyone considered it to be among the top four in the league.
Does anyone think that about the current squad? At best this is a mid table squad with mid table underlying numbers. United are 11th in expected goal difference, 10th in deep completions allowed, and eighth in box entry differential9. Their xG is seventh in the league - though in the two games under Van Nistelrooy they managed just 23 shots for 1.9 xG. It’s all decidedly mid.
The bar for Amorim to come in and provide immediate improvement could not be lower. Few will have a problem if United finish even as low as 10th. United will eventually catch back up to their underlying numbers and if Amorim improves those even a little bit, they’ll likely finish battling for the European places.
Amorim faces the challenge of building for next season with a squad overloaded with aging, high-contract players nearing or past their prime. While there’s promising young talent, they remain unproven and haven’t yet displaced the veterans.
This summer will be financially tight unless INEOS can pull off a miracle by offloading some big contracts. For now, United’s path back to the Champions League hinges on two factors: can Amorim revive the experienced players to top form, and will any young player make a breakthrough, surpassing the veterans and leading the team?
I’m excited for the Ruben Amorim era. I think he has the personality to handle the task at end. I just keep reminding myself, we’ve got a long road ahead of us.
*I’m on BlueSky now. You can follow me at pkwestel.bsky.social
United were six points off the top four when Solskjaer was sacked and nine points out when Jose Mourinho was given his walking papers
And somehow just six goals in the GD column for the Champions League, four for Europe
We are not holding our breathe though
that under normal circumstances probably would have finished with a few more
A 58 point pace
His new contract will be another difficult obstacle for Amorim to manage.
Both under Ten Hag and when he was at Brentford
Which gives him an advantage in terms of his goal scoring numbers but in fairness his higher assist total should also be noted
These are the three stats Kwest Thoughts looked at at the beginning of the season to predict top four finishes
To be honest, I'm tired of being optimistic. I'm currently not able to imagine United being a good side again.
Another good piece, albeit I think you're a little on the low side regarding expectations (no bad thing) and squad quality (very much up for debate). And we could always re-sign Pogba at any time...