"They could have gotten him for nothing two years ago!" Why that's not actually true for the big clubs

The world of football transfers is shady and ever changing; and agents are manipulating the system to get every last dollar out of it

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In August 2006 West Ham United signed Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano from the Brazilian club Corinthians and everyone knew something was up. As described by Tariq Panja and Alex Duff in their book “Football’s Secret Trade,” a few days later Premier League Chief Executive Richard Scudamore marched in to West Ham’s offices with only one thing on his mind:

“These players, what’s the story? How have they got here?”

Football’s Secret Trade by Tariq Panja and Alex Duff

This wasn’t the first instance of third party ownership (TPO) in football, but it was suddenly the most high profile one, and the Premier League didn’t like it. By June 2008 the Premier League had drafted new rules to restrict third party ownership, but those rules differed “drastically¹” from FIFA’s ‘third party’ rules, creating gaps in the enforcement of TPO.

FIFA’s rules didn’t outright ban TPO but did attempt to restrict it. Their rule stated: “No club shall enter into a contract which enables any other party to that contract or any third party to acquire the ability to influence in employment and transfer related matters its independence, its policies or the performance of its teams.”

These rules left a lot of gray area and the TPO practice would continue on in the shadows for the next few years. That is until 2014 when an Atletico Madrid club plunged with over €100 million in tax debt made it all the way to the Champions League final - on the backs of players they didn’t really own.

Three months later, in September 2014, UEFA announced they were going to tackle the issue. Later that month, FIFA announced they would finally ban the practice outright. By 2016 TPO was strictly forbidden in England.

As with most things in the world, it would be naive to think that banning something makes it actually go away. Rather it simply forces the perpetrators to adapt and come up with something new.

Football is no different. In this case the adaptions has moved to player agents and ‘deal brokers.’ These guys identify young talented players and bed themselves in with them almost like family. They develop a trustful bond with the player and suddenly hold a lot of influence over the player.

It’s not as simple as these guys only want what’s best for themselves because their future is still tied to the success of the player. They need that player to develop and be in demand of a big contract in order to hit it big, so in that regard, their interests are completely aligned.

The practice exists in Europe but it’s extremely prominent in South America. Agents hovering over young players and enticing them with the promise of getting them a move to Europe. The transfer world is all about who you know and who your contacts are, these agents have contacts with certain clubs and steer players in those directions.

If and when the player blows up and catches the eye of the big clubs, that’s when you’ve hit the jackpot. Suddenly the agent becomes not just the agent but the ‘deal broker’ as well, collecting a nice chunk of the transfer fee in addition to their regular agent fees.

There are several different ways things could get messy. Some deals are shadier than others. Some clubs will be paying out larger fees under the table in exchange for agents sending young players their way. But we also shouldn’t say this applies to every deal. Some deals are completely above board.

Both the 2023 transfer windows have been highlighted by deals for 20-21 year old midfielders worth more than €100 million. Chelsea spent £106 million on Enzo Fernandes, just a few months after Benfica signed him for €10 million. Jude Bellingham went from Borussia Dortmund to Real Madrid for €103 million, just a few years after BVB signed him for £25 million. And now Moises Caicedo is making a £110 million move just a few years after Brighton signed him for £5 million.

All three deals had unique circumstances in their own right, but all three ultimately followed the same pattern. High potential teen midfielder moves from small club, to bigger club, then makes massive move one of the richest clubs in the world.

In at least the latter two cases, big clubs were interested in signing the player directly from their original small club, yet none of them managed it. It has lead to fans on social media often using this as a stick to beat up on clubs who let the player slip away.

Reality is often different than perception and the reality is, in modern football when these teenage phenoms move for low fees, they’re not actually available to the top clubs.

Caicedo is a unique and particularly messy situation. He landed at Brighton in 2021 because they were the only club who could figure out who his agent was. Even now in 2023 Caicedo’s situation is still extremely messy. Caicedo changed agents back in January but his original agent has since launched a legal case against him for breach of contract. In all likelihood this is what lead to the situation where Caicedo agreed to move to Liverpool, only to then back out hours later and say he’ll only go to Chelsea.

As people wonder how Caicedo can look at the current Todd Boehly project and choose Chelsea over Liverpool we must remember, Caicedo may not have much say in this decision. Someone stands to make a lot of money from him going to Chelsea.

Agents have far more influence in these dealings than any of us would like to believe. It’s a messy world, but even if it was a completely clean world, smart agents would operate in this manner anyway. It makes the most financial sense for everyone.

Jude Bellingham is a good example here. In the summer of 2020 Borussia Dortmund beat out Manchester United for his signature. Critics of United like to put the blame for this on the club’s manager, or they’ll cite that Dortmund was better for his development because he’d play right away.

That’s all hogwash. At the time, BVB’s midfield was arguably better than United’s. Bellingham would have no trouble establishing himself in the first team, and United were forthcoming about that in their pitch to him. At the end of the day, it all came down to money.

Borussia Dortmund’s pitch was for Bellingham to come play for a few years, and then they’d sell him. That was important to Bellingham and his family who wanted to ensure Birmingham City got as much money as possible.

Included in the deal was “a sizable” sell on fee. But a sell on fee only matters if there’s another sale. United’s pitch was for Bellingham to be the rock that they built their midfield around for the next decade. Had he gone to United, the sell on clause wouldn’t come into affect.

Since United saw Bellingham as a player to be there for the next decade, this was factored into their wage package as well. They needed to scale his earnings to account for the fact that they’d be giving him raises throughout his tenure.

Borussia Dortmund didn’t have to worry about that. When it was time for Bellingham to sign a mega deal they’d sell him, allowing them to offer higher wages up front and have more money coming Birmingham City’s way when they sold him.

For the player, his family, and agent, that decision is a no brainer.

Mino Raiola had the same tricks in mind when he took Paul Pogba from Manchester United to Juventus in 2012. Four years later, Pogba was sold back to United in an £89 million deal. That deal was brokered by Raiola and he reportedly took home £41 million from it. Pogba had wanted to go to Real Madrid, but Raiola reportedly told him to go to United and, eyeing dollar signs from another huge move, in three years he’d get him a move to Real Madrid. Three years later Raiola tried to make that happen, but Real weren’t interested.

Raiola would quickly learn his lesson. That winter he established himself as the deal broker for Earling Haaland as he looked to leave Red Bull Salzburg. Again the bidding was between United and BVB, and again United were looking at landing a player who would be with them for the next decade.

This time Raiola insisted on putting a very attainable release clause into the contract, essentially giving him more control over the player than the club and skirting TPO laws. This would guarantee that there wouldn’t be a repeat of the Pogba situation. If someone came calling the club couldn’t refuse to sell the player, and Raiola could engineer another big money move and pocket large fees for it.

Raiola might have been the loudest agent when it came to making deals like this, but he’s far from the only one². These days any smart agent is looking to steer their client down a similar path because it gets them (and their client - what a bonus!) the most money.

Let’s say you represent an 18 year old phenom who has drawn interest from all the major clubs in Europe. It’s only going to cost a £10 million transfer fee.

Manchester United are offering your client £25k/wk in wages (£1.3 million per year). As the agent you’ll get 10 percent of those wages (£130k per year). It’s not much, but it’s a big increase over what he’s currently making and as he performs at United they’ll keep bumping his pay. Soon they’ll double his wages to £50k/wk, within a few years he’ll be at £125k/wk, but very quickly the club will step back and say what’s the rush in increasing his wages? We have the player under contract for another three years!

But what if in three years your client becomes one of the best players in football and should be making far more? He could get that if he moved, but Manchester United aren’t going to sell. It took Marcus Rashford seven full seasons before he finally jumped up to the £300k/wk group.

As the agent, you’re going to be just as frustrated as the player since you’re only making 10 percent of his earnings. The only way to change that is to get a new contract, and the best way to do that is by engineering a move.

Enter in the mid level clubs. Perhaps they initially only offer your client £20k/wk but in a year that could be doubled and in two or three years when the player is ready for a mega deal, they promise to not to stand in his way. Perhaps the club also cut a back room deal three years ago giving the agent an even larger chunk of the transfer fee. Now the agent acts as the broker of the new deal, collecting part of the transfer fee as the players agent, and charging another fee for brokering the deal. He’s also moving his client to a club offering a wage package of £250k/wk - far more than he’d be getting had he gone straight to the big club three years ago - along with a hefty signing on bonus. You’re collecting 10 percent on all of this. Everyone wins.

No matter how shiesty these guys are, players tend to be loyal to them. Most of the time that comes from things like the agent taking care of the players family at the early stages of his career when the player has nothing. Most of the time it’s as simple as, they understand their agent working to get them the most money possible.

Most players don’t have ties to any particular club. They understand that their window for making massive amounts of money is really small and they’re looking to maximize their earnings to the greatest potential. They’ll go to the club that their agent tells them to go to because they trust their agent has a plan to make them the most money. Sometimes that club is the best fit for the player, sometimes it’s the club offering the player the most money, sometimes it’s the club offering the agent the most money.

Players know agents are greedy but it works to their benefit. Agents are always going to be looking at how to make more money, and the best way to do that is engineer transfers.

So when a top six club and a Brighton or Benfica are fighting over the same 18 year old phenom, the Brighton’s and Benfica’s are always going to have a leg up on getting the player.

It doesn’t matter if the big club is a better fit or can offer him more. As long as these £100 million transfers keep happening any agent is going to keep steering their clients to the mid level club every single time.

1. Maciel, Matteo; Walton, Adam (1 March 2019). "Can player economic value rights be used as collateral?". The International Sports Law Journal.

2. You think it was a coincidence a few years ago when Wolves signed a bunch of Portuguese players who all happened to be represented by Jorge Mendes?