Reader Questions: Manchester United's Summer Shake-Up: Transfers, Management Changes, and Future Strategies
Answering your questions ahead of the new season
Welcome to the summer mailbag. Thanks to everyone for submitting your questions. We had some really great ones this year. I tried to get to as many as I could plus there was one that I thought merited its own post - so stay tuned for that.
There were a lot of rumors that ETH will have a reduced input in transfers, however, the 1st player that looks over the line is De Ligt who ETH worked with. Is this business as usual with manager-led signings or he is just the cheapest well known defender available from a top club?
- Ayo Laiye
Well would you look at that, De Ligt wasn’t the first signing after all. Erik Ten Hag and INEOS opted to really signify that this was the start of a new era by making Joshua Zirkzee their first signing of the summer. Zirkzee is not a former Ten Hag player, he’s not represented by SEG, and he never played in the Eredivisie, but he is Dutch so we’re not completely beating the allegations here.
I’m not completely sold on how much of a target De Ligt actually is. I forgot what it was but I read something a week ago that made my brain immediately go ‘they may just be using this as a negotiation for Branthwaite (this was before Onana went to Aston Villa)? But also did you notice how the reports were United would close these deals right after the Euros, then the Dutch lost and two days later Zirkzee was signed but we really haven’t heard anything about De Ligt? Hmmm.
Maybe I’ll look foolish when he signs later in the summer. Perhaps he’ll sign the day after I hit publish. Who knows?
There has been a lot of jubilation about the change in Management. The Jury is still out, Ashworth and Vivell and Berrarda are yet to start. A few things so far have left me a bit cold wrt INEOS. I'll talk only about recruitment strategy. As far as the players we are targeting. We seem to still be interested in signing rejects from other big clubs this tie just younger. I'm referencing Ugarte and De Ligt here. It is possible a change of scenery helps these players, but especially with Ugarte who was signed last year by PSG. If they want to be rid of him why do we want him? When I look at the best teams they rarely ever sign players from other big teams they usually go after young players from a lower level team primed to take the next step and if those transfers fail, they dump them on suckers like us. If Ugarte and De Ligt arrive and are successes, it will be seen as shrewd and smart business. I will also argue that it will be lucky. The best teams are not built like this. The scouting is still terribly unimaginative. Hopefully that changes going forward. The Jury is still out on a similar deal that happened last year with Mount because of injuries but I never liked it. Do you think this is a good recruitment strategy?
- Obscurantro
This isn’t what people want to hear when it comes to the new structure:
This summer was always going to be a bit of a weird one. Ashworth didn’t officially start until July 1st. CEO Omar Berrada didn’t come in until two weeks later. The “structure” may be in place right now but that’s only the top of the structure. They still need to build their teams out, implement the strategies and processes they’re going to be using, build out their scouting network and databases - all that stuff which takes time.
None of that stuff has been built yet so while they will have final say on whether United sign or don’t sign a player, any target is still going to be coming out of a previous network/process established by a previous regime. Transfer targets are scouted months to years in advance, so anything we’re dealing with this summer is still going to have a heavy Ten Hag influence.
As for the targets I agree with you. Top teams are not built from taking squad players from other top teams. If a player isn’t good enough to get into the best sides in Europe - and you want to be one of the best sides in Europe - he shouldn’t be good enough to get into your team either. Maybe he is because your team is so weak, but then putting that player there sort of puts a ceiling on how good you can be.
I’m trying to think of other scenarios where this has happened and worked out and I’m drawing a blank.
As the reader mentioned there’s Mason Mount going from Chelsea to United. Only a year later it’s still unclear where or how he fits into this team. Kai Havertz also moved from Chelsea to Arsenal last season and he’s been ok but not exactly someone you’d be thrilled with spending big money on. Oleksandr Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus both moved from Manchester City to Arsenal. There’s a former coach involved so maybe there’s enough there to make an excuse for those moves but what’s it done? Arsenal have gone from top four contender to bonafide title challenger with them but naturally they haven’t helped Arsenal get over the hump of actually being better than City.
Manchester City plucked Raheem Sterling away from Liverpool but that’s not the same thing. Sterling was 20 when he made that move and he was a starter at Liverpool!
Having said all that. As of this writing neither of those guys have signed, but the club have signed 18 year old Leny Yoro1, which is obviously a massive step in the right direction. It’s yet another reminder to believe half of what you see and none of what you hear, especially when it comes to transfer rumors. Weed out the noise and focus on the actions.
With the talks about Ten Hag have softened his approach at the end of the season (giving the boys an extra day off, being nicer in talks, etc.), in your opinion, what should we see from his behaviour in the next season?
- Ângelo Savioti
I want to see him take more accountability in his press conferences.
After getting thrashed 4-0 to Crystal Palace you can’t be going out there and saying “the players didn’t follow the script.” That’s a good way to lose the dressing room and if you hadn’t notice, Crystal Palace wasn’t a one off - the team has routinely been conceding 20+ shots a game throughout 2024. The script itself hasn’t been that good.
Acknowledging that you made mistakes or that you got it wrong on the day, doesn’t make you a bad manager. Good managers make mistakes, good managers get it wrong some days. Bad managers make excuses, hide behind their players, and then watch as the same thing happens week after week.
I will say Ten Hag’s comments following United’s first preseason match2 were a good start in this direction.
What's the best place(s) to go to for player and team stats? You quote a lot of numbers that don't seem to be easy to find (e.g. your Kobbee Mainoo article from earlier this year and his effect on on/off team defensive stats).
- bb11
What a great question to plug some advertising!
Pretty much every number I quote comes from Fbref unless otherwise noted. Things like defensive line height come from Markstats.club, and I keep detailed spreadsheets so I can calculate it down to individual games.
While were here, you should all check out Stathead powered by Fbref. Stathead takes the data already living on Fbref and allows you to easily search for what you want to know - like which player had the most carries into the final third in a Premier League match in the last three seasons? Use code PAULYK at signup for a discount.
For the final 4 matches of last season. ETH changed his formation to 4222 and it yielded 3 wins and 1 narrow loss against Arsenal. How viable is this formation to be used for the long term and does it suit the footballing philosophy of what ETH wants to achieve at Man Utd assuming that next season will be mostly injury free.
- Awko
Things definitely looked better when Amrabat came into midfield, but it a testament to how bad United were throughout the season that bad football managed to look so much better.
Over the first 36 matches of the Premier League season United conceded of 17.25 shots per game with expected goals against of 1.66 per game. The “better football” over the last two games plus the FA Cup final yielded shot totals of 21, 17, and 19. An average of 19 shots per match and 1.85 xGA per match. That’s worse than the entire season prior to that.
Labelling this formation change as a “success” reflects a strong results bias. Yes they won their last three games but Brighton played them off the park. At one point United took a 3-1 lead against Newcastle and looked like they had a very comfortable win but that wasn’t the case at all. I implore you to go back and watch the first half of that match and you’ll see Newcastle easily cutting through United’s midfield time and time again.3
United need to change a lot for this upcoming season. Right now this formation is only viable if you’re looking for another eighth place finish.
Any thoughts on the assistant manager/coach shake up happening, with Ruud and Hake joining the club?
And we've been linked to Ugarte, who I think is a wholly uninspiring, ill-fitting choice. What kind of DM do you think we need here?
- Seastar
The coaching shakeup falls into two buckets. The positive spin is to say everyone does this and getting new voices in there is a good thing. The other side of it is it feels a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
When teams are failing it’s typically because they need better players. But the way the sport is set up it’s not easy to just get rid of all your players and bring in better ones. But the club typically feels like they have to something so they could sell it to their fans that they’re trying. Usually that means changing the manager since that’s easy. In this case they’re not changing the manager so next best thing, change around all the assistant coaches!
I’m with you that Ugarte is probably an ill-fitting choice, though that really depends on how you’re going to use Kobbie Mainoo (which we will dive more into next week!).
Kim McCauley had a very good breakdown of Ugarte over on The Transfer Flow at the start of July. This is what you’re getting with Ugarte.
That’s an extremely good ball winner and someone who covers a lot of ground, but is very much lacking in moving the ball forward. If you were to play this as a number eight next to Mainoo playing as a six - think the Nemanja Matic Fred partnership but really think the Matic, Ander Herrera, Paul Pogba midfield. However you’d still be lacking a little bit of moving the ball forward.
However when you see that profile it really just makes you think that Ten Hag would want to slot Ugarte in for Casemiro and continue playing the same chaotic style he’s played for the last two years. 2022-23 wasn’t all that different from last year. The front five launched the same high but flawed press, only that season when the press didn’t work Casemiro just cleaned everything up. When he played United conceded 10.43 shots per game - the sixth lowest total in the league. When Casemiro didn’t play in 22-23, United conceded 15.93 shots per league. Had they done that over the whole season that would have been the second highest amount in the league - right where they were last season when Casemiro couldn’t clean things up anymore.
The third place finish along with United falling off a cliff last year has made people forget how that style didn’t really work. United very much overachieved to finish third - and that was with world class Casemiro in there, who also is better at making that forward pass to launch the attack than Ugarte is. If you’re even just slightly worse than the world class level Casemiro was at two years ago, it’s very unlikely those tactics will work for you.
Sir Jim said that it would likely take 3 years for United to be serious again. Assuming we stick with ETH for the 3 years and you are Dan Ashworth (or whoever that is above ETH and deal with footballing matters). What would be your big picture strategies/execution plans over the next 3 years to get us competitive again?
- Vasu
I don’t think I would do things much differently then what (it appears) INEOS are currently doing but here goes.
We’re looking at three years from now so I’m writing down 2027-28 and circling that. Every decision I make should have that season in mind as your target date.
Until then, I’m not worried about missing out on the Champions League. Results don’t matter. A club like Manchester United doesn’t have to worry about relegation, and we’d be looking at the underlying numbers for growth.
I’m not signing anyone over the age of 23 years old and I’m leaning towards more 18-19 year olds than 23 year olds. I’m also brining back the Sir Alex Ferguson era rule that anyone over the age of 30 can only be extended one year at a time. Let the current core of Rashford, Bruno, Shaw, Martinez keep you competitive for the next three years while running out their contracts (Martinez would be extended).
At the same time I’m giving controlled minutes to the likes of Garnacho, Mainoo, and all the other youngsters. Garnacho can start 30 league games, that’s not a problem, but I wouldn’t be letting him start 38 consecutive matches again.
The goal is for players like Garnacho, Hojlund, Mainoo, Yoro, to form the backbone of the team while supplementing them with other young players who will also grow together as a team.
The summer 2027 would be when my strategy starts to shift. At the start of the season Hojlund will be 24, Garnacho 23, and Mainoo 22 - just about entering their primes and ready to lead a team on a title charge. That’s when I’d start looking to supplement them and filling out other holes in the squad with prime-age players who are ready to compete now - think Bruno Fernandes joining the squad in January 2020.
Hi Pauly. This question is not related to just united only, but in general about football clubs. Do fans overestimate or underestimate a managers influence in a team, or there is a bit of truth in between
- Raphael
They overestimate it and it’s not even close.
I won’t dive too deep into it here as I’ve previously written about this subject here and here. Ryan O’Hanlon also wrote a good piece about it in early July.
Plenty of studies have been done on the subject and they all conclude the same thing. Coaches don’t make that much of an impact. Most analysis suggests that a great manager will only improve a team by “a few points per season.” Ultimately what’s most important is how good are your players, which as O’Hanlon pointed out, is exactly what the best managers say.
Having said that, a manager can still have a very impact but that large impact is likely to be negative. A bad manager can really bring a team down. You can tactically handcuff your best players by putting them in roles that don’t suit them or allow them to do what they’re best at. That’s a sure fire way to get your team to underperform. You can have bad tactics that teams know how to exploit - that will also lead to underperformance.
If you don’t have good players it’s very hard to punch above your weight with one exception. You get stuck in and be very tough to break down while being efficient with your scoring by scoring on counter attacks and set pieces. These tactics can be very dangerous in the cups, but are much harder to find success over a 38 game league season as they’re heavily reliant on moments and taking your chances. That’s why we see certain managers who have accumulated a nice trophy count by winning a bunch of cups, but simply don’t find success in the league.
Such as Leny Yoro. United’s interest in him predates INEOS taking control of the club
Which also featured conceding more than 20 shots!
At times it looked like Amrabat was playing for Newcastle