Manchester United's Erik Ten Hag Dilema

The Dutchman has made himself a problem for Manchester United, but sacking him won't solve the club's problems

(Authors note: It’s telling me this post is too long for email even though it’s far from my longest, so you’ll have to click the headline to open the link)

I never tried to hide the fact that I knew nothing about Erik Ten Hag before he was hired by Manchester United. Throughout the 2021-22 season I never advocated for or against him because why would I speak on something I knew nothing about?

I was skeptical about the reputation he had garnered. At the time, he was being touted as one of the best tactical minds in Europe - right up there with Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp! It wasn’t a question as whether he would be United’s savior or not, it was obvious.

I wasn’t exactly sure where this was coming from. His resume wasn’t anything special. He dominated a small league with the biggest club in league that had the best players and the most resources. His highlight was a run to the 2019 Champions League semifinal¹ but we should be smart enough not to overemphasize a good cup run². He had no experience in a league the size of the Premier League. Champions League run aside, his resume wasn’t too far different from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer³. That made him one of the best coaches in Europe?

Despite my skepticism, I liked the move. He still checked a bunch of the boxes I had for a manager, including my most important one - someone who was moving up from a job rather than someone who just got sacked for not being good enough. Moreover I spoke to people whose insights and opinions I trust and value who also happened to watch a lot of Ajax. They loved the move for United.

There was just one warning they gave me. He’s not the guy that they’re selling him as. He’s not this Pep Guardiola style possession guy, he doesn’t rotate his squad, he doesn’t love youth as much as it’s being sold, he prefers to sign older ‘win-now’ players. He had his core principals but didn’t have a “set style” - his last Ajax team was drastically different than his first - but this was a good thing. He’d be able to adapt to what he had at United. They were confident this was the right move for United. Why wouldn’t I believe them?

I was excited to see what Ten Hag was going to do. First two matches aside, United got off to a strong start under Ten Hag winning four of their first six league matches and moving up the table. Despite that, I never really got sold on him.

I understood the love affair the media had with him as United climbed up the table. Football is a complex sport that is very difficult to explain. It’s much easier to just give the credit or put the blame on the guy on the sideline. But ultimately I thought the praise was over the top.

Manchester United finished the 2020-21 season with 74 points. They were second in the league in goals scored, conceded the second fewest goals, and were second in the league in open play xG against. There was some over performance in there because United were really good finishers - third in the league in npG-NPxG.

Perf Fbref, this was the United XI from that season based on minutes played.

When Ten Hag took over one year later, nine of these 11 players who were the spine of a 74 point team were still there. One of Ten Hag’s first moves was to phase out the biggest detriment to the previous years team, essentially returning the spine to this. Only they also had Raphael Varane, a clear upgrade on Victor Lindelof. He’d also add Lisandro Martinez. In midfield they added a clear upgrade in Casemiro, while up front Antony’s reputation was to at the very least be a replacement for Mason Greenwood.

At the very least this team should have been just as good, if not better.

Only they weren’t? Sure United were good last season but they never really looked convincing. They got big wins against top six rivals at home early in the season but away from home they were a disaster. Their numbers were never particularly great with most predictive metrics having them outside the top four.

The defensive structure and pressing that everyone said Ten Hag would bring never really materialized. United were ninth in shots against and eighth in expected goals against. They somehow lead the league in clean sheets thanks to the stellar play of Casemiro and their opponents having a run of horrific finishing in front of goal. This looked less like a solid team and more like one being propped up by a few individuals having spectacular seasons.

All of this could be written off though as it was only his first season. Sure, there was a concern that the average of the squad, 26.9, was on the higher side, but give him another transfer window and another preseason to really work with the squad and address these issues and things should get better.

Except that hasn’t happened. Rather than get better, United have gotten worse. Much worse.

At the forefront of that is Erik Ten Hag. Excuses have been made all season for him such as the amount of injured players he has but that comes back to the manager. He overuses players, he doesn’t rotate his squad, and the amount of muscle injuries United have picked up in training suggests something is up there. This happening a few times is just bad luck, when it keeps happening… maybe the manager should change something!

On the pitch United have been dreadful. Their defense can’t stop a nosebleed and forget about scoring goals, the attackers can’t even create a chance. When all your attackers are wildly out of form, that immediately points to a coaching issue.

It’s not exactly hard to see where that issue is. While Ten Hag’s United lack an identity, they certainly don’t lack a style. Their tactics are the same thing for every match. The wingers stay wide on the touchline, while the fullbacks make underlapping runs to attack the half spaces. In other words, attackers like Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho, and Antony stay wide and out of trouble while the fullbacks attack the dangerous spaces. It’s no wonder none of them are scoring⁴.

The system is designed for the creators to be facilitators and the fullbacks to be the main creators. That would (maybe) make sense if United had good creative fullbacks, but they don’t, and their best one has spent a third of his minutes playing center back. That helps explain why their new £60m striker can’t even get a shot. United can’t get him the ball!

Right now the attack is built around Scott McTominay making runs into the box, which means everyone else is sacrificing their strengths to play this style. If it doesn’t work, your other attackers aren’t in positions where they can make an impact - especially Bruno Fernandes, the only true creator in the starting XI who now has to play deeper to accommodate McTominay. It’s understandable why the players aren’t thrilled with this.

Defensively United are an absolute mess. Despite Erik Ten Hag’s insistence that they don’t man-mark, all evidence points the contrary. We’ve seen center backs get easily dragged out of position

and in midfield it’s become very common for teams to drop whomever United’s number 6 is marking deep, to pull him out of position.

Teams know they just have to be patient because one of their runs will pull someone out of position and create a gap in the middle of the pitch that can be exploited.

And this is all in settled defense. The way United use McTominay to attack leaves them heavily exposed to transitions the other way. Multiple managers have already comments about how they know they are going to get transitions against United due to how United play. They prepare for it.

Once the opponent gets near the goal United have become extremely vulnerable to cutbacks. It’s been exploited time and time again this year, and while they have conceded from one in a few games, that’s not because the coaches have fixed the problem but rather because they’re just saving the shots now.

It’s popular to blame the players and assign the narrative that ‘these players have gotten managers sacked before so they’ll do it again,’ but the reality is the manager isn’t putting them in a position to succeed. Week after week teams show up knowing exactly what they need to do to thwart United’s system. Every single week Ten Hag is being out coached, only managing to prevail because United have much more talent on the pitch.

I have no ill will towards Erik Ten Hag. United took a chance on a guy to make a rise in class and return them to the summit of English football. I like that they did that rather than hire some retread. It’s just become obvious that Ten Hag is not the guy. It happens.

He’s not getting the most out of the players he has. Rather than try and play to their strengths, he’s doubled down on the philosophies and system that are causing the players to struggle. That has turned him into a problem for Manchester United.

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In the immediate term Manchester United need to move on from Erik Ten Hag. His tactics are proving to not work in the Premier League and there’s nothing in his C/V to suggest that he’ll figure it out at this level.

But what does that accomplish?

United are currently 11th in expected goal difference. A different manager can likely get more out of this current group of players, and a better structure will certainly improve those numbers. When Jose Mourinho was sacked United were 10th in expected goal difference. They had the third best expected goal difference over the remainder of the season. Mourinho left with United 11 points out of the top four. For as much of a head start United have given their rivals this season, they’re only six points off the top four. It’s doable.

But where does that leave you? A top four finish is essentially the ceiling of this team. They’re not going to naturally be much better next season due to how old the age of the squad is⁵. It’s a terribly built squad and there isn’t any money left to make drastic changes this summer. All of that is on Ten Hag.

Ten Hag is the architect of this team. He demanded control over transfers as a condition of accepting the job.

United gave him that control.

That itself is a failure by Manchester United. A proper football club would have a structure above the manager that handles recruitment. United were moving in that direction. If a manager demanded this responsibility as part of his job, a proper club would say no.

That United don’t have this structure will make any managers job difficult and is a reflection of the way the club is run by the owners. United have “tried” to modernize in recent years. During the 2021-22 season they (finally) hired a Football Director and overhauled their scouting department. That all went for naught when the football director’s first act was to hire a manager and immediately concede recruiting power to a coach with no scouting experience.

Ten Hag got what he asked for, which makes him culpable in the composition of the squad. Ten Hag’s recruitment has been expensive and short sighted. In his first summer he “rebuilt” his midfield with two players over the age of 30, one of whom cost £60m. Just one year later, both were ready to be replaced. He spent £80m on Antony, who despite actually being the right age of 22, could manage to eclipse Alexis Sanchez as the worst United signing ever. This summer he spent £55m on Mason Mount who can’t even get into the team.

Essentially, it’s probably already too late to sack Ten Hag. The long term damage is already done. Similar to Jose Mourinho United are going to feel the effects of Ten Hag’s recruitment for years to come.

Ten Hag’s dealings have left this team in financial hell. After blowing through the transfer budget his first summer, United let him borrow from the following summers budget to waste money on Casemiro and Antony. He’s spent three summers of budget in just two years. United were already right at the FFP limit, failing to get out of the group stage of the Champions League is going to impact their revenues which will further impact spending. If United were to qualify for Europe next season, UEFA’s new sustainability laws will come into play. This season teams were allowed to spend up to 90 percent of their revenues on first team players and coaches, next season that goes down to 80 percent.

The money Ten Hag has wasted spent severely ties United’s hands next year. While we know that it is impossible to be truly successful under current ownership let’s pretend that INEOS comes in, puts in a real footballing structure, and actually has everything up and running by next summer. There is still a mountain of work that needs to be done.

When United started building the core of this squad, the window they were targeting was 2022-2025. That window is now over. The bulk of their core players like Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Luke Shaw are at the end of their primes. They’d need to be phased out in a rebuild, but Rashford and Bruno are on contracts that are all but unmovable. Other core players like Raphael Varane, Harry Maguire, Victor Lindelof, Casemiro, or Christian Eriksen are on the wrong side of 30 and need to be moved on. As for players entering their prime, Antony is unlikely to drum up any interest even on loan, while the club has done more to reduce Jadon Sancho’s value than boost it.

Even with the right sporting structure in place, the makeup of the current squad makes it nearly impossible for any new manager to have real success over the next few years. For United to really get out of this, they’d need a manager who goes full Mikel Arteta. They who is solely focused on the long term and doesn’t care about getting results for the first years.

Where are you going to find someone like that? Even managers who claim they’re looking to build a long term project care about short term results⁶. The overwhelming majority of managers are always thinking about making sure they can get another job if they get sacked.

That leaves us with Erik Ten Hag. From a long term perspective sacking him isn’t going to solve United’s problems⁷, so, don’t sack him. He’s supposed to be this great coach so, coach the team that you built.

Obviously you take sporting control out of his hands and use the remainder of Ten Hag’s contract. United will still be good enough to barely beat the bad teams that they won’t have to worry about relegation. Take the time to get spending under control, phase older players out, and recruit younger players that you can build your next team around.

In the meantime, Ten Hag will either live up to that great reputation he built, or he’ll be exposed as a fraud whose tactics don’t work and is incapable of changing them. Once that contract is up, United can hire a manager who fits the style of the players they’ve recruited and will hand him a team that’s in a much better position for long term success.

1. Where he blew a 3-0 lead in 45 minutes against a team missing their best player - at home

2. Which in hindsight looks a little different beating one team who were getting used to playing with Cristiano Ronaldo, and one team getting used to playing without Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time in a decade

3. Who won in an even smaller league but didn’t have the largest club in the league with the best players

4. Antony has been god awful but these tactics aren’t helping him either

5. Despite Garnacho, Kobbie Mainoo, Hojlund, and zero minutes from Cristiano Ronaldo the average age of United’s squad based on minutes played is actually older this season.

6. Erik Ten Hag cares about results so much he wouldn’t even rotate his squad in a dead rubber

7. It would free Ten Hag of the problems he created while United are still left to deal with them