Manchester United vs Newcastle Musings
Thoughts following Manchester United's 3-2 win over Newcastle
I wasn’t planning on writing about this match since it wasn’t much more than a dead rubber at the end of a season we all can’t wait to be over. But I ended up having some time today and more thoughts than would fit cohesively into a few tweets so figured I’d write them down here.
At first it appeared that Manchester United had given us something rare on Wednesday night. A relatively easy win that was enjoyable to watch from start to finish. The type of match that really hasn’t happened this season.
Following a closer than expected 1-0 loss to Arsenal where the Gunners allowed United to keep 54 percent possession, Ten Hag to keep things similar against Newcastle. The only change being Bruno Fernandes coming back into the team as a false 9 in place of Rasmus Hojlund.
United produced one of their best performances of the season. Though there were some tense moments, it was a very enjoyable evening for United fans.
Amad Diallo, making his second Premier League start of the season, was sensational, assisting Kobbie Mainoo for United’s opener and scoring the second. His two footedness, ball control, and dribbling abilities gave United an attacking option on the right wing that they’ve been lacking all season. Add to that having a more natural sitter in central midfield, and the return of Fernandes’ creative spark, and United produced their most cohesive pass map of the season.
Then I watched the game back this morning.
As always when you watch a game back a second time you’re going to see it differently but this time I was amazed at how differently I saw it. It was still one of United’s better performances this season. The problem was it was by no means good.
More of the same from United
Last week against Crystal Palace United’s performance could be summed up by their inability to prevent Palace from getting chances to run straight at United’s back line. Right from the jump Wednesday Newcastle were getting themselves into very similar positions.
Here, Diogo Dalot starts out by staying with his man when he drops deep to receive the ball.
But then he bizarrely just backs off and gives Jacob Murphy time and space to turn around.
With no one near him Murphy is able to turn and run at United’s defense. Notice the gap between Mainoo and his partner in central midfield Sofyan Amrabat.
A poor pass from Murphy to Isak allowed United to escape this situation.
United were undone against Palace 12 minutes into the match when Casemiro stepped out of the back line was sent flying by Michael Olise. Olise then ran at what remained of United’s back line and calmly finished.
Last night Alejandro Garnacho cut inside only to lose the ball in a duel with Sean Longstaff. When Longstaff wins the ball, United’s back line is still intact but their midfield is once again nowhere to be seen.
A natural center back would know this is a situation to hold your ground try to delay the attack. Casemiro is not a natural center back, he only knows one thing and that’s see ball, win ball. Casemiro comes running up, allowing Longstaff to easily side step and suddenly United’s back line is dangerously open.
Last week Palace convert this and the narrative is that the players aren’t trying. This week United’s performance is lauded because plays like this are forgotten simply because Longstaff badly overhits his throughball. That’s how thin the margins are.
Man Marking in midfield
That’s the thing about United. It might have seemed like they were more secure in midfield but the system was still exactly the same and could be exploited in the same ways. Mainoo and Amrabat were typically tasked with marking Longstaff and Bruno Guimaraes in midfield. Therefore Newcastle could exploit this and create space in the middle of the field by pushing those players wider.
Here with the ball at the back United are pretty much in their 4-4-2 defensive shape, sitting off the ball and not pressing. Notice how far apart Mainoo and Amrabat are. This leaves plenty of space for Newcastle to move the ball from the back to the front with one simple pass through midfield.
Isak drops to receive the pass with Casemiro stepping out of the line to follow him. Joelinton, who originally positioned himself slightly between the lines is now ready to exploit the massive gap in midfield.
Isak touches the ball back to Joelinton, and at that point Longstaff recognizes he’s got plenty of room to make a run in behind as Jonny Evans is deep enough play him onside.
This time United are rescued out by a great save from Onana.
Lack of buildup structure
Newcastle’s first goal came from another season long issue United have had. Their buildup structure, especially on goal kicks, sucks. It’s not that United don’t have players that can play with the ball at their feet and pass, it’s that often they have no one to pass too.
When United take their goal kick, Onana doens’t have any options other than a chipped ball out to Dalot which isn’t as open as this screenshot makes it seem.
With no options and Newcastle closing in, Onana is forced to go long.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with going long. In fact, United have been pretty good going long on goal kicks this season. But if you’re going to go long on a goal kick, you have to commit to going long and get everyone up the pitch.
The worst thing you can do when going long on a goal kick is leave your defenders deep to play everyone onside for the second ball. That’s exactly what happens here. Onana launches the ball deep and McTominay goes for the header.
Newcastle win the header and send it back towards United’s goal. If United were prepared for a long goal kick, they’d have their center backs up to head that ball right back towards Newcastle’s end. But they’re not there, that ball comes to Sofyan Amrabat who misjudges it. Again if everyone was high up the pitch you’d be able to clean this up with a simple back pass, but since they weren’t high up the pitch, Newcastle now have a player behind Amrabat who’s in great position to win the ball, and he’s well onside.
Newcastle win the ball back, get United on their back heels, and immediately grab an equalizer.
All this comes from Andre Onana not having any passing options on a goal kick.
This was a fun game. Fun doesn’t necessarily mean good. This was not a good performance from Manchester United but it’s still true that this was one of United’s better performances this season. We’ve gotten so accustomed to horrible performances that we’ve subconsciously lowered our standards and are ready to accept bad performances as good.
The pass map was very nice and cohesive, but United didn’t do much with it. They took 17 shots but only 1.4 xG. A paltry 0.08 xG per shot and, per Opta, only created only two “big chances.” They looked more settled on the ball, doing a better job of keeping possession, yet only had 45 percent possession.
The defense looked more compact and more settled. Yet they conceded 21 shots and 2.3 xG1. However Newcastle’s post-shot xG of just 1.2, demonstrates how poor their finishing really was. The Magpies created six big chances which includes the biggest one of the match that didn’t result in a shot.
Entering yesterday’s match, in 20242 United were averaging 15.93 shots per game and conceding 20.19. Their xG per game was 1.46 for and 1.72 against. 36.14 progressive passes per game and 45.40 against. They enter the opponents box 16.93 times per match and have the ball come into their box 21.4 times per game. Their opponents have been getting 35.67 touches in the box per game.
On Wednesday night United took 17 shots and conceded 21. The xG was 1.4 to 2.3. They made 28 progressive passes while Newcastle had 50. They successfully entered Newcastle’s box 17 times but Newcastle got into United’s 25 times and took 41 touches.
In other words, this “good” performance fell right in line with the form United have had since the turn of the year. That form has taken just 26 points out of a possible 54.
I don’t want to be negative as Wednesday night truly was one of the more enjoyable evenings of the season. I was taken aback, though I know I shouldn’t have been, by how quickly everyone seemed to say, “oh things are really good now.”
If Erik Ten Hag is to retain his job, it shouldn’t be because of anything that happened Wednesday night or anything that does happen over the next 10 days. That decision should have already been made for a myriad of other reasons. Making long term decisions based on one or two games is a great way to increase your chances of making a poor decision. And for as fun as this match was, if this match is what the standard becomes then, well, you’re going to drop points in a lot more matches than you win.
Watching the match back I was amazed at how similar this match seemed to the match against Wolves on the opening day of the season. The numbers for that game were nearly identical to the numbers against Newcastle.
It’s fitting that these matches will bookend the season at Old Trafford. The first chapter was a match where United came out on top, but were nearly played off the park. We were mad because our expectations were so high. The final chapter was a match with similar but slightly worse numbers, yet the reaction is one of almost celebration. Our expectations fell that low.
0.11 xG per shot
These numbers also exclude the match at the Ethiad which would only skew them further