Manchester United have "the Paul Pogba" problem with Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes is Manchester United's best ball progressor. He's also their best creator. United's problem is they only have one of him
For the most part, Paul Pogba’s spell at Manchester United is not going to be remembered fondly. The opposite will be said about Bruno Fernandes.
Pogba’s £90 million move from Juventus to Old Trafford is often seen as a failure. Over the six year period Pogba never seemed to live up to the hype. There are a variety of reasons for that, expectations were misplaced - especially early on - but most of it comes down to where Pogba was played on the pitch.
Pogba was a central midfielder who could ‘do it all.’ He was at his best further up the pitch where his creativity could shine and he could make runs into the box. At Juventus he was given a role allowing him to do that, and it was reflected in his individual stats such as goals and assists.
When he arrived at Manchester United it was another trait that caught Jose Mourinho’s eye; his ability to pass the ball from deep. United were looking for a successor to Michael Carrick and Mourinho - perhaps mistakenly - saw Pogba as that guy. With United already having creative players like Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Juan Mata, and Wayne Rooney in the team, they didn’t need Pogba’s creativity. They needed someone to get the ball to those creative players up the pitch.
Pogba was deployed deep in a double pivot for the better part of three years. The move worked - when Pogba played United took more shots, scored more goals, and had a higher xG than when he didn’t - but Pogba himself wasn’t lighting the world on fire. For £90 million fans expected to see goals and assists or at least a dynamic attacker but instead they were seeing a midfielder who didn’t get forward and just pinged passes around - a role that didn’t truly become appreciated by world football until 2022-23.
Upon Mourinho’s sacking, interim manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer played Pogba as the furthest man forward in a midfield three and we quickly saw Pogba hit new levels individually. But injuries to Nemanja Matic and Ander Herrera late in the season meant Pogba had to be played deeper in midfield for the sole reasons that - all that ability close to goal isn’t useful if you can’t get the ball to that position. Pogba was the only one who could get the ball forward.
With Ander Hererra departing for the 2019-20 season, Pogba was again dropped deeper to get the ball forward for the likes of Jesse Lingard or Andreas Pereira to handle the creation. United struggled because they only had one Pogba where they needed two: one to progress the ball and one to create. For most of his United career, Pogba’s individual talent was sacrificed so United could progress the ball into the attacking part of the pitch.
That brings us to Bruno Fernandes.
There’s a fundamental difference between Fernandes and Pogba that comes from the fact that we don’t do a good job of defining central midfielders. The term is sort of a catch all for players in the middle of the park even though there are so many different types.
Pogba was someone who had the calmness and ability - though not the defensive quality - to play deep. If you put him around defensive players, he could be a Pirlo deep lying playmaker. But what he was best at was an attacking number 8. Not a player who played just behind the striker, but a number 8 who made late runs into the box.1 Bruno Fernandes is a number 10. He’s at his best playing just behind the striker, but can play a bit deeper. The two are completely different players, with different positions, that happen to have some overlap.
Bruno arrived at Old Trafford and was almost everything Pogba wasn’t. Essentially because he actually scored and assisted goals and that came from playing further up the pitch. In his first five Premier League matches before the COVID 19 lockdown, Bruno had two goals and three assists. Albeit that’s a little circumstantial, one goal came from a penalty and two assists were on set pieces. His one goal from open play came on a shot from outside the box that Jordan Pickford fumbled into his own goal.
It’s a small sample, but upon Bruno’s arrival United’s underlying numbers didn’t improve at all2. In other words, none of this was really sustainable.
It was only during Project Restart that things really took off and that happened for one simple reason. Paul Pogba returned to the team.
Prior to lockdown, United were already starting to see the problems they had previously had with Pogba and would soon develop with Bruno. They couldn’t get Bruno the ball in those dangerous areas. In fact, just 30 minutes into Bruno’s United career Bruno was dropped into the pivot against Wolves when Solskjaer realized he wasn’t going to get the ball otherwise.
When Pogba came back United cooked as their problem was solved. They had someone who could move the ball up the pitch and a creator in the final third to receive those passes and turn them into scoring chances.
Bruno was sensational as a duel threat. Over the final nine games of the season he scored three non-penalty goals and added three assists from open play with three more pre-assists. A year later Bruno continued to cook, scoring nine non-penalty goals with 12 open play assists and a further 11 pre-assists.
While numbers like that from an attacking midfielders are nothing short of fantastic, they could have been even better and the fact that they’re not showed United were still susceptible to the same problem.
Paul Pogba missed 1523 minutes (roughly 17 matches) of the 2020-21 season and when he was out, Bruno - and United - struggled. Without Pogba on the pitch, Bruno’s assists per 90 dropped to 0.27 from 0.41 with the Frenchman3. More problematically, only one of his 11 pre-assists came without Pogba on the pitch. If Bruno wasn’t directly involved in the goals then United weren’t scoring. And the problem is Bruno can’t do everything.
It’s not all that difficult to uncover the reason Bruno’s numbers fell off. Just look at where he was taking his touches.
Without Pogba, United not only struggled to get the ball to Bruno but struggled to get it to him in dangerous areas. As a result, Bruno often found himself dropping deeper to get on the ball. Bruno would move the ball forward but once again United now lacked their star player being in those areas to receive passes.
Bruno got the 2021-22 season off to a torrid start with a hat-trick in his first match but the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo along with United’s continued midfield problems changed his role. He was once again dropping much deeper to get on the ball and his performances suffered.4
That trend would continue under Erik Ten Hag. Last season Fernandes’ usage rate dropped to it’s lowest point of his United career and once again his touches were coming from deeper. Bruno still turned in a sensational season with monstrous creative numbers. Despite playing deeper on the pitch, Bruno’s 16.7 xAG lead the league. This was aided by United’s direct counter attacking approach. Bruno’s successful through balls increased by nearly 50 percent from the previous season to 0.95 a game.5 Bruno only finished with eight assists thank to his teammates poor finishing.
That brings us to this season. United still aren’t scoring goals. More concerning, they’re not even creating as many chances as they used to.
United have had personnel issues, but they’ve also made it a point to build from the back more than in previous years. While the addition of goalkeeper Andre Onana means they have a goalkeeper who’s comfortable with his feet, it’s still the same defenders and midfielders ahead of him who struggle to play through the lines.
United are building out the back more this season but it’s not going anywhere. Per Opta, United have 217 sequences of 10 or more passes this season. However only 50 of those sequences have ended in a shot - the 9th best ratio in the league. To make matters worse United rank 16th in open play xG per shot. In other words, when these sequences do end in shots, they aren’t good shots.
A lot of this comes down to how United are using Bruno Fernandes.
United’s formation in possession this season has switched from having a number 10, to more of a 4-3-3 with two attacking 8’s. They’ve also changed from a striker like Anthony Martial, who drops deep and opens up space behind him, to Rasmus Hojlund who makes runs towards the goal. Both of these minor tweaks will have an effect on how Bruno operates.
Compared to mere mortals, Bruno is still putting up fantastic numbers. But compared to Bruno those numbers have dipped in the early parts of the season. His through-balls are down as opponents guard against counter attacks. His shot-creating actions have taken a dip especially his open play shot creation which has seen his open play xA cut in half.
As the season got going a few things happened. United’s buildup structure with just the one deep midfielder struggled to move the ball forward. Then Scott McTominay started scoring goals.
With United’s attack struggling to get going, you have to figure out how to fit in the guy who is scoring goals. McTominay may be a midfielder, but he’s not good at buildup play. Since he’s scoring goals he was pushed further forward while Bruno has been the one to drop deeper.
A quick peak at the numbers shows us the whole story.
It’s fairly obvious what’s happening. Bruno’s taking nearly the largest percent of United’s touches he ever has, but they’re coming deeper on the pitch. His touches in the final third are below his two best seasons at Old Trafford and he’s not getting into the box as often. Most telling, his progressive passes received going down tells us he’s not receiving the ball as high up the pitch.
He’s no longer an outlet, he’s now the man dropping to receive the ball and push it up the pitch. Sometimes that even means dropping between the center backs.
When United struggled to move the ball forward early in the season, Bruno did what he always does - drop deeper to find the ball. The problem with that is it takes a player out of the attack. This is seemingly what Mason Mount was brought in for. When Bruno drops deep United would still have a creative player further forward.
After the Brentford match, Erik Ten Hag fully leaned in to Bruno’s propensity to drop deep by just having him play deeper in possession. Doing this would sacrifice some of Bruno’s best attributes - he’s a number 10 and is at his best playing closer to the striker - but as United’s best ball progressor sacrificing some of Bruno’s game would make the team better.
The only problem was rather than playing a creative player like Mount closer to the striker, Ten Hag went with Scott McTominay. McTominay is good at running into the box and finishing chances but he’s not a creative player. Add to that Ten Hag has flanked him with Antony and Alejandro Garnacho - two shoot first wingers who aren’t creative themselves. In terms of pure creativity this is just as bad - and probably worse - than when Pogba played behind a front four of Rashford, Martial, Dan James, and Andreas Pereira/Jesse Lingard.
Thus the result shouldn’t be too surprising. Bruno is doing the first part. He’s averaging more progressive passes per 90 than any of his previous United seasons, but there’s no one moving the ball from point B to point C. Against Newcastle Bruno had 13 progressive passes, no other United player had more than three. Against West Ham he had 11, the only other starters with more than two were the players in the back four, which is a sign of West Ham’s tactics.
As a whole United’s progressive passes per game are down. They’re entering the final third less often and taking fewer touches in it. Since dropping Bruno deeper they’re taking 2.25 fewer shots per game.
The team is struggling as Bruno is still operating as their main creator, but now he has to do it from much deeper on the pitch. The absence of Marcus Rashford isn’t helping matters either. Neither Garnacho or Antony are as good at getting on the end of through-balls and counter attacking.
Now just because things aren’t working doesn’t mean United had the wrong idea. It’s possible playing Bruno Fernandes deeper is what this team currently needs. They’re just using the wrong players. United solved the Pogba problem by signing Fernandes and having another creative player further forward. Dropping him deeper only to have McTominay further forward makes no sense.
Injuries have partially necessitated this setup but there were plenty of matches where Mason Mount was fit but left on the bench. If United want to (finally) get going this season, they don’t necessarily need to push Bruno further forward but if they don’t, they need to put Mason Mount in that more attacking role.
The emergence of Kobbie Mainoo gives you the option of playing the 18 year old alongside Sofyan Amrabat or Casemiro in midfield to allow you to push Bruno back up high into the number 10 role. Mason Mount can also play on the right wing. Considering Antony has been trash this year deploying him there may give United the most creativity they’ve had in that position since Juan Mata.
That situation would provide more balance to the squad with Mount providing creativity from the right and Luke Shaw able to provide some from the left while Bruno does what he does best down the middle. United need more creativity from the front lines in order to get forwards like Rashford and Hojlund going rather than having all their forwards try to do it themselves.
This setup would also allow for Bruno to drop deep and help with ball progression if necessary, but a combination of Mainoo and another midfielder will help mitigate that to some to some degree.
Christian Eriksen returned to the fold this week, allowing Bruno to play further up the pitch, which directly lead to a goal, but this is a flawed solution. With Eriksen there Bruno was able to take more touches in the attacking third but he still wasn’t getting into the box and more importantly, he took more touches in his own third than Eriksen. He also lead United with seven progressive passes compared to Eriksen’s two.
Part of that was game state and part of it was the tactical choices of each manager but part of it is just Eriksen. If you have the ball, Eriksen will help you keep the ball but he’s not going to help you win it back, making it harder for United to control the midfield when he’s in there. His defensive limitations mean he’s not a long term option in this position while his durability rules him out of being a short term option - since joining United he’s played just 53.61 percent of available Premier League minutes.
Until United get those players back they’re stuck with what they currently have, which leaves them with a Bruno problem. He’s their best ball progressor and their best creator, but there’s only one of him.
Pogba was used as a number 10 every now and then and was rarely effective there
United started getting results thanks to their defense turning into a brick wall.
With two of Bruno’s four non-Pogba assists coming in the 9-0 drubbing of Southampton where the Saints played a man down after one minute
You probably won’t be surprised to hear Bruno had 0.77 npG+A per 90 when Ronaldo wasn’t on the pitch and 0.33 when he was
Since Erik Ten Hag has taken over no player has completed more through balls in the Premier League than Bruno and second place isn’t even close
Why did EtH not try Eriksen in the #10 role?
Mainoo, Casemiro in a double pivot and Bruno in the 10 could be the solution to unlock Bruno.