It feels different this time
Marcus Rashford isn't the first homegrown player to leave Old Trafford and he won't be the last, but something about this one feels different
Maybe we should be thankful that this played out fairly quickly. After all, transfer sagas can often drag on for months on end, with each side leaking cryptic messages to the media. It can quickly get messy. That didn’t happen here because within a week Marcus Rashford addressed a weeks worth of transfer rumors head on.
“For me, personally, I think I'm ready for a new challenge and the next steps.” Rashford told Henry Winter.
Rashford has threatened to leave before but that was merely a ploy commonly used by many players when they’re in negotiations for a new contract. Rashford got that contract, he’s not up for a renewal. This time it feels real.
From a business sense, now is the time for Manchester United to cash in. Rashford is 27 years old, age curves are real. History tells us he’s unlikely to ever hit the career high 17 Premier League goals he scored in 2022-23 ever again let alone eclipse it. If an offer came in, it would make sense for the club to take it.
Good players look like great players when put in the right role in the right system. Great players can perform in a few different roles and in any system.
Rashford is a good player, maybe really good. Manchester United decided to pay him like a great player, then change the system. That’s not his fault.
But this isn’t the place to discuss Rashford’s recent form, hypothesize or (downright make accusations) from the outside about his attitude or how hard he works without having any actual evidence. There are plenty of places on the internet where you can go do that.
It was never supposed to go like this. As Wayne Rooney was getting older and closer to moving on, Rashford represented the new hope. The man who would hopefully take the baton and carry United back to the top. When he left the club it would hopefully be to hang up his boots, and he’d have done his part in getting United back to the summit of English football.
The finances and business of modern football doesn’t allow for that. As Rashford moves past his prime you can’t just phase him into a squad player role. When you’re getting paid £300k/week you have to be the top player. The club needs that. A club can’t succeed if squad players are taking up that much of the budget.
It may not be the way we envisioned it, but the time is right for all parties to move on.
It’s sad whenever you see a player you’ve watched for a decade depart the club. Rashford isn’t the first star to leave United and he won’t be the last. The club survived the likes of David Beckham, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Wayne Rooney leaving and it will survive the departure of Rashford. It always does.
While all those players are great, and I don’t think it’d be controversial to say greater than Rashford, it still feels different this time.
Rashford was here during the dark years. The club was a mess in a downward spiral when he came in. That part hasn’t changed, and there have been more bad years than good. But those good years were lead by Rashford. When Rashford went so did the team, when he didn’t, they faltered.
That’s part of it, but it’s bigger than that. When the aforementioned players left, they left a squad that was far more prepared to absorb their loss then where United currently are.
David Beckham left United at the age of 28 after nine seasons1. The team he left had just won the league. We may not have known that Cristiano Ronaldo would be walking through the door to replace him, but the team still had a 26 year old Van Nistelrooy, who scored 25 league goals the previous campaign, and a still in their primes Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. Two of the best players in the league at their respective positions.
The team was well equipped to handle the departure of a winger though they did suffer a bit. They fell from 83 points in 2002-03 to 75 in 03-04. That was suffering back then. These days 75 points would be the second most in a season since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
Ruud van Nistelrooy departed after falling out with the manager. The Dutchman had scored 95 goals in 150 Premier League appearances. He was the focal point of the attack. But United were ready for him to depart. They had 20 and 21 year olds Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo ready to make the step up and lead the team. They still had Scholes and Giggs, perhaps a step slower than three years prior, but still among the best in the league. They had already signed a new goalkeeper and new young defenders Nemanja Vidic and Patrice Evra to give them a robust and solid defense.
The media reacted strongly to United letting Van Nistelrooy go. They always do because sensationalism sells. The reality was the future was bright. Even if Rooney and Ronaldo hadn’t been ready, United would go into the next summer knowing they only needed one more piece of the puzzle.
Ronaldo leaving felt like the end of an era. He was, definitively, United’s best player over the past two years and carried them to back to back Champions League final. To add insult to injury, Carlos Tevez was leaving to. No one was ever going to replace Ronaldo, but United didn’t need Ronaldo to win the Premier League2. Their midfield remained solid, their defense spectacular. Up front Dimitar Berbatov had arrived the previous year in anticipation of this happening, but most importantly United had Rooney. One of the best forwards in the world ready to step in and be the guy after playing sidekick for a few years.
Rooney left at a different juncture in his career. He became the club’s all time leading scorer but we all could see he was washed. He didn’t need to be replaced because by then he had already been phased out of the team. Even then, the club had spent heavily on midfield, they had strong attackers, and they had two kids, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford who we hoped were only a year or two away from becoming stars. They would carry the club.
Even two years later when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer jettisoned off the club’s expensive but underperforming attackers, Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez, and opted to replace them, it didn’t feel like doomsday3. Paul Pogba was coming off a sensational season in his prime, Luke Shaw was finally looking like the player United expected him to become, there was a solid defense, and again, there was Rashford and Martial. The two had spent the past three years alternating on the left wing. This was their Rooney and Ronaldo moment, the time to show us if they could step up and lead the team or not.
I don’t think Rashford will depart in January. His wages make finding a suitor difficult, especially in the middle of the campaign4, but at this point nothing can be ruled out. Manager Ruben Amorim said “the club needs big talents and he (Rashford) is a big talent.” This may just be Amorim playing the game but a midseason departure for Rashford would be a major loss for United. Even if he never gets back into the first choice XI, injuries and workload make it highly likely United will need to call upon him at some point.
There’s a chance that Rashford’s body is just breaking down from the amount of minutes he’s played and the injuries he’s carried. Most of the top attackers only last 10 years at the top level, we shouldn’t expect Rashford to be the exception. Especially if he’s not in the “top attackers of all time” tier to begin with.
Even if Rashford cannot offer what he used to his departure will still feel different than those previous legends for the simple reason that he’s leaving behind a team that’s in much worse shape than the previous legends did.
Before any replacements were signed, United were pretty prepared to absorb the losses of these stars. They world class if not top players in place elsewhere in the squad, plus youngsters with the potential to become great. The squads Beckham and Ronaldo left were teams that won over 80 points. Rooney left a squad that had won 69, but could have been more if they weren’t prioritizing the Europa League over the league5.
The squad Rashford leaves behind lacks those top players in various different positions. There are a bunch of players that are hard workers and athletic, but the top of the line talent United used to have is gone.
They do have some youngsters with strong potential. How great those players can be and what their ceiling are is yet to be determined. At the moment it doesn’t seem like their ceilings are as high as the previous generation of youngsters were.
For as good as these youngsters are it’s not translating. After 16 games United are 13th in the table. Their underlying numbers suggest they should be 11th, not exactly a barn burner. Last season with these same youngsters leading the charge United finished eighth, but their underlying numbers had them 15th. The reality is this is just who United are.
The future isn’t bleak. Ruben Amorim certainly looks like the real deal and the guy to help take United back up the table. His system requires those athletic players but industry and hard work will only get you so far in the Premier League. You need to combine those traits with high end talent.
The biggest difference between the previous era and this one is United still had that talent in the squad in addition to those youngsters. This time it’s simply not there. Too many of the best players are past their prime and also need to be phased out and replaced. We weren’t kidding when we said Ruben Amorim is walking into the worst situation of any of United’s previous managers.
Amad Diallo has emerged to be a really nice footballer, but he’s only one. Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Hojlund might develop into good players, but they don’t look like they’ll become the best players in their positions. Maybe you disagree with that assessment and that’s fine. They are still young - though Garnacho has a lot of miles on his legs - but football is a young mans game these days, they don’t have as much development time as you think. Look no further than Rashford himself, his best seasons came in his early 20’s and that’s more the norm than the exception.
United are going to need to find their high end talent externally. That itself provides a scary element of the unknown. United have gotten many, probably most, of their transfer in recent years horribly wrong. That was before INEOS but they to are completely unproven. The financial situation and the high costs of transfers means they really can’t afford to get any moves wrong.
Ultimately the departure of Rashford definitively marks the end of an era. Managers came and went but Rashford was always there, the way Rooney was there before that and Beckham before him. As you moved through your university years, or young professional years, or when you settled down and started a family. Whatever changes and growth you were going through he was always there.
Everyone knew this day would ultimately come. Few would argue that the timing isn’t right. But in the past there was always a clear direction as to where the team was going next. This time that path is very unclear. This time it’s different.
This may or may not be surprising to you but Beckham has only played about 20 more “90s” in the Premier League than Rashford has.
Europe is a different question
Again with the exception of the sensationalists
He’s also cup-tied in Europe
Not that this was the wrong decision
Pauly in many of your articles you cite minutes as very influential to age curves. Is there any research that supports this?
In most sports I think aging is the primary factor that influences decline, not playing time. Notable exceptions may be pitching in baseball and running backs in American football, because both positions are highly prone to chronic injury.
But why would you think Garnacho playing more at 20 would lead to him being slower at 27, unless he gets a major injury? I don't see an intuitive connection. Running speed starts declining sharply by mid/late 20s due to age and I think that is the primary cause of decline in most attacking players rather than racking up a certain number of minutes.