Getting the best Kobbie Mainoo
Manchester United can take several directions with the development of Kobbie Mainoo. Which one would benefit the team the most?
All numbers in this post are from Fbref unless otherwise noted. Some of the data was compiled using Fbref’s new Stathead tool. Stathead takes the data already living on Fbref and allows you to easily search for what you want to know. Use code PAULYK at signup for a discount on your Stathead subscription.
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for the 2024 Kwestthoughts Summer Mailbag that was published last week. I enjoyed taking the time to read your questions and provide some answers but there was one question that I thought merited it’s own post to try and give an answer.
How should the team be set up so that Mainoo’s intelligent positioning can be maximized?
- William
Some may call it Kobbie Mainoo’s intelligent positioning while someone else may call it a disappearing problem.
Last season Mainoo had 50.99 touches per 90, which put him in the 26th percentile among midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues. That number though is significantly impacted by who Mainoo is playing next to and where he’s actually positioned.
When Mainoo lined up next to Casemiro or Sofyan Amrabat he was pushed higher up the field playing as a more advanced number eight. When he played next to Christian Eriksen or Scott McTominay he would play as more of a number six and be United’s deepest midfielder.
When playing as a number six, Mainoo’s touches went up to 63.73 per 90, but when playing further up the pitch the amount of times he’d get on the ball was just 46.63. That is almost the same as the 43.6 touches per 90 of Scott McTominay - a man who built his house and permanently lives in the cover shadow1. When Mainoo plays as the deepest midfielder he’s targeted with 45.18 passes per 90, a figure that drops to just 29.87 when further up the pitch. Intelligent positioning is only useful if you’re teammates can get you the ball in those intelligent positions.
Earlier this year there was a bit of a debate among the data nerds and mostly Manchester United fans about Kobbie Mainoo. That debate seemed to resurface this summer when Mainoo broke into England’s starting XI during the Euros.
Mainoo’s stats are bad. As Statsbomb CEO Ted Knutson said, when it comes to on-field output nearly everything Mainoo does falls into the 11-50th percentile among Premier League midfielders. That’s really good for an 18 year old midfielder who still has years of development, but right now it’s not so good. While in three years time Mainoo may be one of the best midfielders in Europe, that’s not the player he’s going to be this season.
What Mainoo is good at doesn’t show up in the stats. His number one best trait is his brain. He’s mature beyond his years and he doesn’t get rattled. He’s got the exact same demeanor whether he’s playing for the U21s, at Anfield, the FA Cup final, or the final of the Euros. At United he’s most likely to be the one telling everyone else to stay calm and settle things down. You can’t measure that, but it’s an invaluable trait.
Mainoo doesn’t get rattled, which is a trait that shows up in his on pitch abilities. He is by far the most press resistant player United have. He thrives in keeping and carrying the ball through tight spaces. Most importantly he’s someone that his teammates know they can pass him the ball and he will receive and safely move it to another player no matter how much pressure they’re under.
That’s a trait that isn’t caught in the (publicly available) stats and there aren’t many players in the world who can do it as well as Mainoo can. For those two reasons alone you should be putting him in your team2.
As the stats show, Mainoo isn’t doing a whole lot of anything else3.
This isn’t really a problem because you’re expecting Mainoo to develop in some of these areas andin the mean timeyou can offset this by partnering him with a player who does the things Mainoo is lacking. The question becomes, which areas are you looking for Mainoo to develop in and which areas are you looking for his partner to cover?
Normally a young player breaks in with raw talent and technical skills and the club needs him to develop maturity. In Mainoo’s case he already has the maturity, the club now need him to develop the technical skills.
That puts Manchester United in a very unique position where they can essentially choose the path of what skills he’ll develop based on what role they want him to play. The question is what role is that going to be?
The best way to make the player useful while he’s still developing the rest of his game is lean into the skills he already has. As mentioned, Mainoo is exceptional at carrying the ball in tight spaces. He’s extremely press resistant. Put him in a position where that can benefit the team.
Let Mainoo be the deepest midfielder. Let him be the one who provides and outlet for the center backs when United are playing out from the back and desperately need someone to pass to. Get him the ball and let him move it to one of the better players who can move it up the pitch.
Every time I watch Kobbie Mainoo play he does things that remind me of other players, but the one player I keep seeing whenever I watch him is Nemanja Matic.
Matic was a very good defensive midfielder by being solid but unspectacular at just about everything. Matic would get himself open to receive passes from the back line and immediately look to move it to one of United’s better players. He wasn’t trying to make things happen, that wasn’t his job.
Both Matic and Mainoo have that similar trait where they’re calm and patient on the ball. Most importantly they don’t force things. If the pass to Bruno isn’t there, they’ll go somewhere else. If all their passes are covered, they’ll carry the ball forward until something opens up.
Matic wasn’t a high tackle or high interception guy, but he didn’t have to be. His high IQ positioning allowed him to recover a lot of balls that his pressing teammates worked hard to make their opponents cough up, or delay counter attacks until his teammates could recover. Mainoo has that same positioning IQ while his added mobility allows him to step up to make interceptions in the high press4.
There are plenty of people on the internet that will tell you Mainoo should be played further forward because that’s where he’ll develop into the best player he can be. They may be right, but Manchester United’s priority is developing the best Manchester United they can. That may include Kobbie Mainoo becoming the best possible Kobbie Mainoo or it may include him developing at a different position that makes the team better at the expense of some of his traits.
At the moment, that means playing Mainoo deeper. Right now he just doesn’t have the passing ability to be the type of creative number eight United need.
Think of the Nemanja Matic, Ander Herrera, Paul Pogba midfield United had during Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s interim period. Mainoo slots in as Matic while Bruno Fernandes replaces Pogba. It’s a lot easier to find a player who fits that third slot than it is to find someone as calm on the ball and press resistant to play in that deepest position.
Mainoo would still need to develop that forward passing. If he doesn’t do that over the next few years he wouldn’t be able to be a number eight for United either. When he does add it to his locker, he makes United even more dangerous as most teams just don’t have a deep midfielder with significant passing range.
Every time I think of Kobbie Mainoo’s development I think about this Kees van Hemmen tweet from 2022.
Barring Michael Carrick, the best deep lying playmakers have typically been attacking midfielders who drop deeper as they get older and their legs go. They get by on their technical skills, high IQ, and having others do the running for them. For arguments sake, if we were to assume that Mainoo is going to develop the passing skills that would be necessary of a Premier League quality - if not Champions League quality - attacking midfielder, what if United just cut out the middle man and dropped him into that position for his whole career?
United have a guy who’s already good at the most difficult part of being a defensive midfielder in possession. It’s the part that’s hardest to find on the market and almost impossible to teach. Midfielders with attacking talent and creativity are available in abundance as long as you have the money.
Take Mainoo, lean into that press resistance and tight-space dribbling. Put it in a place where you can maximize its effectiveness without leaving you lacking elsewhere. Maybe he finishes his career with fewer goals then he would have scored if he played higher up the pitch, but if Manchester United are winning trophies with Kobbie Mainoo commanding the midfield, isn’t that the whole point?
McTominay was in the eighth percentile for touches per game among midfielders
Factor in United are rebuilding and they can afford to have a developing midfielder in there
His lack of passing range can be particularly painful
We saw him do this quite well with England
Great takes, I'm just not sure on Mainoo's own personal position on the matter because of something he said recently about his dream midfield partner.
"I'd say Paul Scholes. Although there might not be a lot defending between the two of us!"
I took a hint there that he's not willing to be that defensive of a player
Mate, I asked this question and was expecting an insightful answer, but you made a whole post! Thanks for the in depth analysis, love the numbers as always. I strongly believe that any title winning team need a strong set of midfielders. The current United team sorely need someone with Mainoo’s football IQ. If we are lucky and his passing range improve, then slotting in De Jong next to him and a buffed CM for physicality should get us into the next title challenge.