Crisis Club: Tottenham Hotspur and Ange Postecoglou
Spurs have hit their ceiling under Ange Postegcoglou - but that's because the Australian has them playing way better than this squad should be
Another day another crisis at Manchester United. Manchester United have become so good at being the Premier League’s crisis club that even when two of the other “Top Six” clubs - Manchester City and Tottenham - are in crisis, United are still taking the headlines as the crisis club. It could all get a bit exhausting so today, we’re taking a break from writing about Manchester United and writing about one of the other crisis clubs, Tottenham Hotspur.
Ange Postecoglou was a breath of fresh air when he arrived in the Premier League last summer. He brings a high octane, full throttle, entertaining style of football that he matches with his off field charisma. Just listen to a few minutes of any of his early press conferences and you’ll be ready to run through a brick wall for this guy.
The Ange era has been interesting to say the least. Spurs started last season tremendously, completely collapsed in November, then were really good again until collapsing (again) in April. They missed the Champions League by two points and were sixth in expected goal difference. That was all coming after dealing with some big injuries all season and oh yea, they sold striker Harry Kane right before the season and never replaced him.
This season has been weird. They’re currently 11th in the table. They’ve had some huge wins but also some inexplicable losses. It seems like the magic of Ange has worn off.
I can’t say that I’m tapped into the Spurs corner of the internet but I’ve got friends who are Tottenham fans who keep me pretty abreast. They’ve got concerns about where things are going under Ange. As far back as February one of my friends was telling me Ange could be gone before Christmas!1 The concern among Tottenham fans, as well as the coverage you hear on some national podcasts, focuses on Ange’s tactics and whether or Spurs can do this long term?
The question it always comes to is, have Spurs hit their ceiling under Ange? Is it possible for him to take them to the next level?
This question gets asked all the time about different teams and different managers. It can often be a difficult one to really assess and answer properly. However in this case it’s very easy.
Uhh yea, this current Spurs team has hit their ceiling. No Ange isn’t going to be able to get them to the next level. But that’s not a knock on Postecoglou, that’s because Ange already has Spurs playing levels above where they actually are!
Tottenham are considered one of the “Top Six” clubs in the Premier League. They’ve always been bigger than the other mid-table clubs but their status as a Top Six club is thanks to nothing more than good timing.
In the first 17 seasons of the Premier League Spurs finished above eighth in the table three times and had an average finish of 9.76. They finished below 12th only three times. They were firmly a mid-table side2.
In the late oughts the Premier League was dominated by the “Big Four” of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool. When Manchester City got bought by Abu Dhabi in 2008, it was expected that they would crash the party and form a new Big Five or simply replace the crashing Liverpool.
This would happen at the end of the 2009-10 season when Liverpool fell out of the top four, except it wasn’t City who took their place, it was a Tottenham side who won a de-facto fourth place playoff match 1-0 over City in the penultimate game of the season.
Though that Tottenham team was managed by Harry Redknapp it wasn’t just some average side. They were built around Gareth Bale and Luka Modric. Bale would go on to command a world record transfer fee from Real Madrid, while Modric was a future Ballon d’Or winner who is still considered one of the best midfielders in the world despite being 39! With those two in the side Spurs finished fourth, fifth, and fourth3
That Tottenham found some consistency, and did it right at a time that the Premier League was reshaping itself, they firmly established themselves as part of this new “top six.”
When Bale left in 2013 Spurs dropped to sixth and threatened to fall back to mid-table mediocrity if not for two things. The Premier League went through a brief period where many of the top teams fell off and were rebuilding themselves and more importantly, Harry Kane.
For nine years Spurs were lead by England’s all time leading goal scorer and one of the three best strikers in Premier League history. Having a world class player in your team certainly helps, but it doesn’t do the whole job. Spurs surrounded Kane with a dynamic midfield, one of the best defenses in the league, as well as a back to back young player of the year winner.
With that core Spurs popped three straight top three finishes followed by a fourth place finish along with a trip to the Champions League final. When some of those players started to leave, Spurs began to fall.
In Kane’s nine full seasons at the club Spurs only finished in the top four five times. Their average finishing position during the Kane years was 4.67. Their seasons finishing in the top three coincided with some of the biggest clubs having some really down years. Everyone recognized that, at the time, Spurs were deserving of their top three finishes, but everyone also expected the other big four clubs to quickly right the ship and jump back above Tottenham.
This is ultimately who Spurs are. It’s important to remember that as soon as Spurs crashed the big four we moved into the top six. That’s an important distinction because while Spurs have moved from a firmly mid-table side to one of the best six teams in the league, they were never fully one of the four best.
The fact that they went so quickly from the Bale era to the Kane era created a period lasting over a decade where Spurs were in the conversation to the point that it was normalized. When Ange Postecoglou took over in North London, he inherited a team that now normally had top four expectations except they didn’t have a squad anywhere near that level.
At their best, Spurs maxed out at around the fourth best team in the league with a ceiling of about second place. That was when Spurs had truly world class players in the team surrounded by other high end players.
It’s the latter group that have really hit them hard. Players like Kyle Walker, Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen, Moussa Dembele, Christian Eriksen, and Kieran Tripper all left and were never fully replaced. The last four seasons of the Harry Kane era Spurs finished 6th, 7th, 4th, and 8th. That’s despite Kane scoring 18, 23, 17, and 30 goals.
Having that one world class player isn’t enough. To really be a contender in this league you need to have the proper supporting staff around that player. Spurs lacked that support staff only to then also remove the world class player from the equation that leaves them with what they have now.
What Spurs have now is a team that simply isn’t that great.
Son Heung-min is now Spurs leader. He’s 32 years old and has only hit 20 goals in a Premier League campaign once in his career. That came during a year where Spurs played a ridiculously counter attacking style of play, with Harry Kane dropping deep to spring Son in behind. Kane had nine assists that season as Spurs finished fourth. Son has been around long enough to prove he can be a number two, but he’s not the guy who can put the team on his back and lead you to the Champions League.
Behind Son are James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski. Maddison put very nice numbers in his five years at Leicester, but there’s a reason none of the top clubs were knocking down the doors to sign him until his price got slashed when the Foxes were relegated. Kulusevski was a hot prospect that came over from Juventus. At 24 years old he still can possibly hit another level but like Maddison he’s been good, or even really good, for Tottenham but not great and certainly not a top of the line player.
This summer Spurs spent £65m to sign Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke after the Englishman scored 19 goals in the Premier League last season. Solanke is 27, he’s had some very good scoring seasons. He’s also had some very bad seasons4. At his best, he’s a very good striker, but he’s never shown to be one of the best strikers in Europe. Brennan Johnson is someone who gets great shots, but doesn’t do much of anything else.
Elsewhere in the squad Spurs have players like Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie, Micky van de Ven, and Pape Mate Sarr. These players were all signed as young prospects with very high ceilings. They’ve all gotten better since joining Tottenham and are really nice players. Maybe one day some of them will even become stars, but right now none of them are.
Tottenham’s squad is currently comprised of young players who might be good one day and Premier League players who were the best players on mid-table teams. This is not a Champions League level team.
Spurs are in a new bracket that has developed. They’re firmly better than the mid-table clubs, only they’re still a tier below the five giants of English football. While Spurs used to be in this little tier on their own, now clubs like Aston Villa and Newcastle are right there with them. It’s a very crowded space. These are all teams capable of crashing the Champions League party, but they’re going to need everything to go right for them to do so and need at least one of the big clubs to be a complete mess5.
On no planet should Spurs be considered one of the four best teams in England yet that’s where the expectations are for Ange Postecoglu. That’s completely unrealistic given the makeup of their squad.
And yet, throughout the Ange era they’ve been right there. Despite the collapses last season they finished two points out of the top four. They would have made the Champions League if not for both Newcastle and Manchester United both completely fucking up the group stages in the Champions League6 last year.
Currenlty Tottenham are 11th in the table but are still playing well beyond what their record says. Just a week ago understat had Spurs ranked third in the league in non-penalty expected goal difference, until a 3.28-0.62 drubbing from Bournemouth knocked them back to fifth. When a team is underachieving against their underlying numbers like that, it’s usually a sign that the system is doing it’s job, it’s just being let down by lack of talent.
Through 15 matches, Spurs have played seven matches that have been decided by a single goal. Only Bournemouth (8) have played more. The weird thing is Spurs have somehow managed to lose all seven games! Their expected goal difference in those games is only -4.1. Simply put that’s not a run of results you’d bank on continuing. It’s likely to turn around pretty soon.
Spurs aren't floundering around because of Ange Postecoglu. He’s the reason they’re even as high as they are.
Considering Tottenham’s underlying numbers vs their actual performances, who are you actually going to bring in who makes this better?7 I do think there is one, maybe two, names who can maybe make a difference right now but both are currently employed and would be very difficult to get.
There are valid criticisms of Ange’s tactical style. The fact that he stubbornly refuses to change it does cap off just how good any of his teams can actually be, and in this case it’ll likely be his undoing.
Nevertheless, the grass always looks greener but the list of teams that have made a move only to find out the grass isn’t actually greener is quite long. The reality is, Tottenham’s big issue right now isn’t their manager, it’s that their squad just isn’t all that good.
There’s still time
“Lad’s, it’s Tottenham” doesn’t come from nowhere
This is a great one for the manager vs players debate. You think Spurs finished that high because of Harry Redknapp? Or do you think it was because they had generational players in the team?
And some injuries
Don’t worry Manchester United got you on that one.
One much more so than the other
Is now a good time to say, Erik Ten Hag is available?
Who are the two names? Tuchel and Nagelsmann?
But then he has had 2 summers now and the team he currently has can be said to be largely a product of his own vision, no?