How long should a 'rebuild' really take?
Rebuilds don't happen overnight. Their long timelines are understandably frustrating for fans. But the dirty little secret about rebuilds is that the best ones never finish.
Manchester United entered the 2019-20 season speaking of a rebuild. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer spoke of a three year plan to get United back to the top.
The reaction of the fanbase to this was mixed. Some saw this rebuild as something that was badly needed. United had too many overpriced and underperforming players. They needed to get younger and more dynamic. If that meant not competing at the top for a year or two than so be it.
Others saw it as an excuse from management to be cheap and lower expectations. The club has been rebuilding for seven years, how are we still rebuilding? This is just a buzzword from ownership so they don’t have to spend money!
There’s an element of truth to that. United had been rebuilding in one way or another since Louis van Gaal took over in 2014-15. That is a long time and all these years later United were even further off the top than when they started.
Of course, that ignores the massive caveat that they blew up the plan several times. Or that if the plan isn’t working you need to start over.
Van Gaal got the team younger. He introduced a lot of youth to the side (he also discovered that a lot of that youth - James Wilson, Will Keane, Tyler Blackett, Paddy McNair, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson etc - were simply not good enough). The pieces Van Gaal brought in to help push the rebuild along by and large failed.
Jose Mourinho tried to leap back to the top rather than building a foundation. When that failed United had to start again.
Starting again isn’t as simple as walking over to your PlayStation, hitting the reset button, and having a clean new slate. As we know, the mistakes you made in the previous years are still with you, and they tie your hands with what you can do financially. If you don’t start again from zero your odds of success get lower and every time you have to go back to zero (IE you’ve made mistakes) the task gets exponentially more difficult.
There are currently two Premier League clubs who have successfully rebuilt themselves and gotten back to the top of the table: Liverpool and Manchester City. Both clubs focused on - and built around - getting the best manager in football. Whomever is better between Pep and Klopp may be up for debate, but they’re clearly the two best. After that they’ve gone about things it in two different ways. Obviously it helps to have City’s riches but the underlying strategies of both approaches were a bit different, which has lead one team to be far more set up for long term success.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is often compared to these two managers. One of those comparisons is laughable, the other one is ~fair~ depending on what we’re talking about.
Taking out their credentials as a manager - let’s break down how these two clubs went about their rebuild, and then we’ll be able to see if Solskjaer is in a comparable spot to either of them, and who he should be trying to emulate.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp didn’t walk into the exact same scenario at Liverpool that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer walked into at United, but it wasn’t too different either. Sort of like British English vs American English: the same, but different.
Liverpool had more or less been rebuilding since their second place finish in 2008-09 (or you can argue they’d been rebuilding for 25 years at that point). His predecessor managed to piece things together enough to make a legitimate title challenge and finish second, before things fell apart again.
Klopp was very clear with what his directive was going to be at Liverpool. He was going to win. He was going to return them to prominence. It wasn’t going to happen overnight. They needed to rebuild the entire squad and they were going to start again from zero. That meant it was going to take a little bit of time but rest assured within the next few years they were going to be Premier League champions.
As a United fan, I hated listening to this because I knew he was right. He was going about this the right way and he was going to be successful.
Expectations were low at first because Klopp was coming in mid-season. Everything that was done up until that point wasn’t done with the thought of “this is what Jurgen needs” going into it. The summer before Klopp was hired Liverpool spent £113 million to bring in the likes of Christian Benteke, Roberto Firmino, Nathaniel Clyne, Danny Ings, James Milner, and Joe Gomez.
Everyone knew that Klopp would need to bring in ‘his type’ of players and they expected him to get busy with that in January.
That’s not what happened. Liverpool’s only January signing was 19 year old who would make all of eight appearances for the club.
Instead, Klopp was about establishing what his team would be. He instilled a new style of play and assessed who in the team would be able to be part the future and who would need to be moved on. Some of those players that were just signed fit Klopp very well. Others very much did not.
Liverpool finished eighth. A run to the Europa League final made it seem a bit better but none of that mattered. Klopp now knew who he could count on, who needed to be moved on, and what he needed. He also looked into the youth ranks to see what he would have, not just for next year, but the year after. That influenced what the team ‘needed’ right now as well.
The following summer Liverpool brought in Sadio Mane, Gigi Wijnaldum, Lorius Karius, Ragnar Klavan, and Joel Matip for all of £71 million. None of these guys were the biggest names and none were supposed to suddenly turn the team around and be superstars. That wasn’t the point. This was just year one, bring in these players, allow them to settle in to the team, and next year when we fill more holes these guys will then be even better.
Without having to worry about European football Liverpool were able to finish fourth and qualify for the Champions League.
That summer they spent another £80m on Mohammed Salah, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Andy Robertson. Not the biggest names, but players that were good fits for the roles Klopp’s system required. Robertson is an attacking left back, Salah completes a formidable front line, Oxlade-Chamberlain is one of those ‘defensive’ attacking-midfielders who can do the dirty work and provide depth.
Additionally they added Naby Keita who would join a year later. That was ok because this was year two. They still weren’t supposed to compete just yet. Bleed in the guys you have, and Keita would be a reinforcement next year.
He also slowly started bleeding in 18 year old Trent-Alexander Arnold. Alexander-Arnold played here and there, mostly against the lesser teams in the Champions League group stage. Klopp knew the 18 year old wasn’t fully ready for the Premier League, he needed to grow more. But at 18, your body is growing quickly and you’re naturally going to look a lot different in February then you did in August. Klopp knew this and knew he’d be an effective player in the second half of the season.
Liverpool were a formidable attacking team now, but they couldn’t defend. The puzzle was nearly complete. That is when Liverpool started to spend the big bucks. Get those final pieces that will put you over the top.
In January it was £75 million for Virgil Van Dijk. A fourth place finish and a run to the Champions League final showed they still had some holes in midfield and in goal. That summer they dropped £56 million on a goalkeeper as well as £40m on Fabinho. The aforementioned Keita joined the squad. The rest of the squad had had a year or two to settle in and build chemistry.
Sadio Mane wasn’t signed for the 2016-17 season. He was signed for this moment, when all the pieces to puzzle had finally come together. Liverpool had their team. They were ready.
We all know what happened next. Liverpool won the Champions League and finished with the third highest points total in Premier League history but somehow didn’t win the title. A year later they did.
Slow and steady. They had a plan and stuck to it. They identified the areas that needed to be addressed and addressed them in that order. They didn’t panic if one player was getting off to a slow start. Fixing a position that you’ve already addressed - before you fix the other holes - just sets you back even longer.
Manchester City
It’s difficult to think that Manchester City underwent a ‘rebuild’ in the middle of the last decade but that’s exactly what happened.
When City had their big takeover in 2008, their transfer strategy was little more than ‘spend money like drunken sailors.’ They went after some big names around Europe (Robinho, De Jong, Balotelli, Dzeko, Silva, Aguero) but otherwise it was mostly, if you were a good, young, English prospect, City were going for you (Jack Rodwell, Adam Johnson). If you had a good year in the Premier League the year before you were going to City (Joleon Lescott, Roque Santa Cruz, James Milner, Scott Sinclair(!), Gareth Barry), and if they could poach you from a rival, all the better! (Emmanuel Adebayor, Carlos Tevez, Samir Nasri, Gael Clichy, Owen Hargreaves, Lescott, Barry, Kolo Toure).
There was some semblance of strategy behind this. Poaching players away from Aston Villa, Everton, and Arsenal made them weaker so City could jump over them. They would eventually put together a team that won their first trophy in 35 years (2011 FA Cup) and win the Premier League in 2012.
Their defense of that Premier League title though was abysmal. That entire season they looked completely disinterested in playing. It made sense, they were a ‘team’ of paid mercenaries. They didn’t care.
City wanted to change that. They wanted to build more of a club mentality where the players cared and wanted to establish a legacy (while still also still being incredibly well paid). They started by hiring former Barcelona Director of Football Txiki Begiristain as their Director of Football in late 2012.
Begiristain was in effect beginning a rebuild for City. He started by shifting their recruitment strategy. They focused on bringing in much younger players. They recruited a lot more from La Liga and a lot less from the Premier League (though every so often they couldn’t resist going back to their old ‘you were good last year so lets’s sign you’ ways cough cough Wilfred Bony). He began clearing out the failed and bloated signings of the past five years (there were many).
City’s “rebuild” was masked a bit winning the league again in 2014 - a pretty poor league that was there for the taking. The next two years they weren’t in contention and they nearly fell out of the top four altogether in 2016.
That didn’t matter though because Begiristain was working on something more important. His priority was on paving the way for City to bring in his good friend from Barcelona. Pep Guardiola.
Begiristain and Guardiola had worked together at Barcelona at the start of the decade. He knew what kind of players Guardiola would need and set about getting them before Guardiola even arrived.
By the summer of 2015 it was one of the worst kept secrets that Guardiola would be leaving Bayern at the end of the season and was more than likely going to end up at City. Every new manager benefits from some of the players that pre-date him at a club, but Pep was at a huge advantage that he had a man in place who was already bringing in players that would fit Pep’s mould.
That’s nearly a whole team and it’s essentially you’re entire attack. Say what you want about Otamendi but he was a key player for Pep for four years.
When Pep arrived that summer City added seven more players.
That’s basically you’re entire team. Before City even kicked a ball in the 2016/17 season these were the players that Guardiola could field.
11 of those players were signed with Guardiola in mind. Of the three who pre-date Begiristain, two of them came from La Liga while Guardiola was managing there. That was a league that was heavily influenced by Guardiola’s style. It wasn’t going to be a question whether they fit in.
That’s why I laugh whenever someone compares Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to Pep Guardiola (besides their managerial accomplishments). Ole (and Klopp) walked in to teams that were built for other people. They had to tear it all down and start again. Pep walked into a team that was already being built… for him!
By the time City were lining up to start the 2016-17 season, Guardiola’s team was nearly completely. His job was to simply start ingraining his style into the team and letting them mesh together. The only holes he had was at fullback, where his hands were tied thanks to City having a bunch of older guys on heavy wages. The important thing was, his midfield and attack were already set.
The following summer Aleksander Kolarov was sold while Gael Clichy, Bacary Sagna, and Pablo Zabaletta were all released. With those wages off the books City were able to spend £120m on the likes of Kyle Walker, Danilo, and Benjamin Mendy. Three fullbacks!
While Jose Mourinho was giving press conferences complaining about trying to keep up with a team who spends £100m on fullbacks that didn’t recognize the point that City could spend that much on fullbacks because they didn’t need to spend the money anywhere else. They were the final piece of the puzzle.
Now that the team was complete they could address their other areas like depth and correcting mistakes. They splashed £40 million on Ederson because they knew they got it wrong with Bravo. Liverpool knew they got it wrong with Karius but right away but still had to wait two years to replace him because they had other holes that needed filling first.
The defense was now fully installed, the goalkeeper was in place, the midfield and the attack had a year to fully learn the system together. They were ready. They won 100 points in the Premier League that year and the next year finished with the second most points in Premier League history.
Longevity
When Manchester United reached the top of the table in January Ole Gunnar Solskjaer said “when you reach the top of Mount Everest you have to keep going because if you just sit down you’ll freeze.”
That’s where Liverpool and City have differed in their respective rebuilds.
Once City hit the top they didn’t stop. In Pep’s first winter they added Gabriel Jesus. People thought this meant they were pushing Sergio Aguero out the door but they weren’t. Jesus was just providing depth, and someone they were prepping to be ‘the next guy’ (for about five years now).
After that first season City have still spent hundreds of millions of pounds but they’ve only signed three attacking players: Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, and Ferran Torres. Those players provide depth so nobody gets worn out. That depth allowed Guardiola to bleed Phil Foden into the team at a very slow pace.
(In that same time frame United have signed nine attacking players. Only one of them is currently a first choice starter. They still have holes in their front four.)
The fact that the attack has been locked in for years makes addressing other needs incredibly easy. That fullback didn’t work out and need a new one? Need to replace a centerback? A lot easier to sign one when you don’t need the resources elsewhere. Furthermore they were able to focus on keeping the team refreshed.
Vincent Kompany was getting old, Aymeric Laporte was brought in to smooth over that transition. Fernandinho looks to be on his last legs, bring in Rodri before you find out Fernandinho can no longer do it. You still need another centerback and Otamendi is leaving? Well since we don’t need to replace our front four for the millionth year in a row we can spend money on Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake.
City built a team and immediately shifted their focus on maintaining that team. Ferran Torres wasn’t signed for this season. He was signed to settle in, develop, and pick up more responsibility in the next few seasons as Mahrez and De Bruyne get older.
Liverpool have done the complete opposite. They added their final pieces in 2019 to create a juggernaut. But then they just stopped building. After finishing one point behind City they went into the next season and didn’t add anyone.
Part of that is because they didn’t have the resources to keep spending crazy money. Liverpool’s ownership group has never spent beyond their means and they had just shelled out big over the last few seasons.
They also knew that they didn’t need to sign anyone to win the Premier League in 2020. They were already good enough. They had their team.
But that decision was going to make it impossible to maintain this level. Liverpool had assembled one of the best XI’s in the world, but they had no depth. Winning the Champions League while getting chased to the final day by City meant they had to use the same players over and over.
In order to get back to the 95ish points they expected to need to win the league they were going to have to rely on those same players, over and over again. Liverpool’s performances dipped last season. They actually finished second in expected goal difference and expected points had them second as well. That’s not to say they didn’t deserve their title. They ground out results, found ways to win, and got lucky bounces. All championship teams get lucky bounces because good teams tend to create their own luck.
But those numbers did wave a massive red flag. Liverpool were wearing out their players as that vaunted front three that they’re team built around was getting up there in age. Regression was an almost certainty. Maybe not to the level it’s been this year but the next few years were going to trend downward if there’s no next wave of players.
Where is that next wave coming from? Over the summer Liverpool added Thiago (29) and Diogo Jota. They’ve added Curtis Jones (who’s magnificent) from the academy but that’s just not enough. The downward trend is likely going to continue to the point that Liverpool will have to blow it up and start all over again.
Obviously if you’re a Liverpool fan that’s all worth it to get your first title in 30 years but if you’re running a club that’s now what you want. Liverpool made the mistake of reaching the summit of Everest and then sitting down.
For Manchester United there’s a lot you can learn from these two clubs. Rebuilds take time. Both City and Liverpool waited about three years to reach success from when they started (because remember, City’s ‘Pep Rebuild’ started before Pep arrived).
There’s a lot they can learn from Liverpool. Do a little bit at a time. Add pieces one year, then more the next, then more in the third year. Prioritize which holes in your squad need to be filled first. Identify players from the academy who may be able to help you this year or next. If it’s next year you’re going to have to live with that hole for another year. If you make a mistake, wait until the end to go back and fix it.
And then make sure to emulate City. Remember Solskjaer’s words; once you reach the top make sure you keep going.
Rebuilds take time, but the best rebuilds never finish.
Good article. Good read.
A bit disappointed that you did not mention Liverpool's need to clear out the old. I would like to read an analysis of that, from the footballing and financial point of view. Because I think Utd have similar ownership constraints, as well as squad issues to be sorted long term.
reat article as usual. Do you think the rebuilds from Sir Matt Busby's and Sir Alex Ferguson's eras also followed the same mould, what are your insights about those? I remembered SAF did quite a lot of deals with potential young prospects (many didn't go anywhere though), but I wá only a kid when he won 99's Champions League with United so I have no idea about his first ten-something years beyond the stuffs I read here and there on the internet. And of course I only get the gist that Sir Matt Busby had built a great side before the Munich disaster, and he had to build everything from the ground up again after that.
Another question: how do you think the restructuring happening simultaneously at the club, and the current COVID affected transfer market would influence the progress of Ole's rebuild? Would it take longer than 3 years to start getting results?