Give me the Pogba-Fred midfield for Liverpool on Sunday
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has rarely played his two best midfielders together despite them looking good in limited opportunities. He's got a chance to give them a good test on Sunday.
(Author’s Note: I spent Wednesday morning gathering my research, crunching numbers, and preparing the graphics for this piece with plans to release it on Friday. Then Wednesday afternoon Ole dropped the Pogba-Fred midfield on me completely out of nowhere as a nice reminder that he’s the Manchester United manager and I’m someone sitting behind a computer. There went that idea. But enough people told me to write the piece anyway that I’m going through with it.
So for now, let’s just pretend that Wednesday didn’t happen).
Manchester United’s best midfielder is Paul Pogba. Manchester United’s second best midfielder is Fred. Pogba is a box to box midfielder who excels at getting forward and making runs into the box but could be perceived as a bit of a liability on the defensive side. Fred is a scrappy box to box midfielder who excels at the defense aspects of the game but isn’t too good going forward.
That sounds like a perfect match right? In theory it is. Back in 2018 when United signed Fred, it was said that the Brazilian was going to be the player to fully ‘unlock’ Paul Pogba.
And yet, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer never plays the two of them together in a pivot. The question is why not?
The popular - but pretty meh - answers that are thrown around are because neither has positional discipline. Pogba is too eager to push up to join the attack and Fred won’t keep his position well enough to protect the back four when he does that.
That’s a fancy narrative but not really rooted in truth; so today we’re going to try and answer that question as well as talk about why Ole should try that pair out in Sunday’s FA Cup tie against Liverpool.
Over the last two months Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has fallen into a simple rotation for with his midfield pivot. In one game it’ll be Scott McTominay and Fred, and the next it’ll be Pogba and Nemanja Matic.
Matic and Pogba were the first choice pair after lockdown last season when United played their best football. But Matic can’t play more than once a week these days, and a rough first month of the season saw Ole lose faith in them. Fred and McTominay came in and righted the ship when United needed them to and they’ve gotten the call in all the big games.
If you’ve been following my work all season then you’d know, the McFred midfield is just bang on average. They have their moments at times, but don’t make their teammates around them better. In fact - @utdArena just showed us exactly why McTominay makes Bruno Fernandes less effective.
Here’s their record when starting as a midfield pivot in a 4-2-3-1 compared to all of United’s other pairs this season, followed by their record over the last two seasons in the Premier League.
Consistently average. And it doesn’t really matter who the other players are. Before Bruno Fernandes arrived the pair started 10 Premier League games together winning five, drawing two, and losing three (50% win rate, 1.7 PPM). Incredibly consistent.
The pair are known for their ability in “big matches” thanks to pulling off back to back wins over Tottenham and Manchester City in the space of three days last year but since then they haven’t won against a team that finished in the top six the previous year.
This year the McFred pivot has started against Chelsea, Manchester City, and Liverpool. All three were 0-0 draws. Three clean sheets and no defeats. That’s nothing to snuff at and in the league, all three of those are good results. Since November the only teams United have failed to beat are currently sitting 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the table. When you look at who United’s rivals are dropping points to ‘don’t lose to the good teams and beat everyone else’ is a great strategy.
The thing about the McFred pivot is it’s too ‘safe’ and creates two big problems for United.
The first is the pair are functional but not creative. As a result, United score less when those two play. That’s partially a result of who they play against and partially a result of the two of them being unable to get the ball to their attacking players in dangerous areas. Here’s a breakdown.
These numbers don’t look too bad but they’re also heavily skewed by United scoring five non-penalty goals against Leeds (Pogba-Matic’s numbers are likewise skewed by that Tottenham result). Take those out and the Red Devils’ have only scored eight non-penalty goals with those two on the pitch (just 0.80 goals per 90).
Here’s last season’s breakdown which provides a larger sample. There isn’t much variance across it.
There’s one pair missing from this group: Pogba-Fred. The two barely played in a pivot together last season but when they did… oh boy!
Those are pretty hefty numbers but let’s remember this is a not just a very small sample size, but that the sample isn’t even great.
Pogba and Fred’s first combination came when Pogba replaced McTominay at halftime against Newcastle on Boxing Day with United 3-1 up. In that second half Newcastle had for the most part quit as they sought to conserve energy for another match two days later.
Still, United racked up eight shots for an xG of 1.13 (understat) in that second half, compared to 13 shots with an xG of 0.87 in the first. That’s going from an xG per shot of 0.07 to 0.14. Oh, and did I mention that for 25 of the 45 second half minutes United’s front four was Juan Mata, Andreas Pereira, Jesse Lingard, and Mason Greenwood?
Their second stint together was seeing out a 5-2 win over Bournemouth during Project Restart. Again, not the best sample, but when Fred came on to “see out” this win, United still pumped another eight shots (with an xG of 1.1) at Bournemouth’s goal.
The two also played together in the Europa League against Copenhagen and Sevilla (Fred was replaced in the Copenhagen match). In those two matches United rattled off a combined 45 shots for a non-penalty xG of 4 (Statsbomb via Fbref)! On the flip side they conceded just 18 shots for an xG of 1.8. They were undone by great goalkeeping and really poor finishing.
The pair works because Fred is able to do the things that Nemanja Matic does - ie dropping into the back line to create a back three which creates more passing angles in buildup play and allows the fullbacks and Pogba to push up. For a second let’s remember the Fulham match happened and watch this clip.
But, 45 minutes against a Newcastle side that wasn’t trying, a relegated Bournemouth side, and two Europa League matches isn’t a great sample to work with. Even accounting for the Fulham match, they’re still 19th in the table, it’s not nearly the same as going against the big boys.
That brings us to the second problem with the McFred pivot. Paul Pogba.
Since November Pogba has been in great form, and in the month of January he’s been United’s best player. He’s made himself undroppable and United are better because of it. But playing the McFred pivot means United now need to shoehorn Pogba onto the left or right wing.
It makes no sense. It’s like hiring the best driver in the world but giving him an SUV instead of a sports car. Not only aren’t you getting the best Pogba, you’re not getting your best midfield. If you want to beat the best teams, you need Pogba in the middle of the pitch.
For the past year, the only time Solskjaer has voluntarily played Fred next to a more attacking midfielder (Pogba or Donny van de Beek) has been in Europe. This probably is due to the physicality of the Premier League compared to the continental game and Solskjaer feels the need to have a bigger physical player next to Fred to protect him.
That fear undoubtedly comes from four games last season. Thanks to injuries and suspensions Solskjaer was forced to start a midfield pair of Fred and Andreas Pereira against Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Manchester City (League Cup), and Wolves.
It was a calamity. The two were completely outmatched physically and as a result United couldn’t even sniff possession. United conceded eight goals in under two and a half games with that pair (Pereira was replaced at halftime against City and Bruno’s position was swapped with Pereira’s after 30 minutes against Wolves).
Solskjaer was rightfully scarred by this but here’s the thing, Paul Pogba is not Andreas Pereira. Pogba is a big physical guy who is more than capable of providing Fred with that protection in midfield. Of course the knock on Pogba is that he doesn’t do the defensive work that’s required for the position.
Or does he?
Pogba certainly doesn’t like doing the defensive work but when he has to do it, he’s really quite good at it. In fact, this season he seems to be doing more on the defensive side of the ball than McTominay has.
Some of these numbers are a little skewed because Pogba has spent so much time on the wings, so I went back and looked at what his numbers are solely when he’s playing in a midfield pivot. (This graphic also shows McTominay’s numbers when playing next to Fred but we don’t need to make a direct comparison there).
Whoa. The adjustment for possession makes this look at lot worse but it’s not a good sign that even Pogba’s raw numbers are higher than McTominay’s despite the former having fewer opportunities (United have higher average possession when Pogba plays in midfield compared to McTominay).
As such I ask, what if instead of playing Fred and McTominay, you put Pogba next to Fred and simply ask him to do Scott McTominay things (IE play more conservatively, hold your position, and get stuck in defensively). That’s the role he plays for France and everyone always raves about his performances for country.
A large reason for that is because he gets to play next to N’Golo Kante who provides a ton of energy in France’s midfield. Well guess who isn’t N’Golo Kante but has a very similar profile to him?
Vs
Would you look at that! Kante runs around doing the pressing for Pogba to then recover the ball (9.83 recoveries per 90 at the 2018 World Cup - Statsbomb via Fbref) compared to this season’s 11 recoveries per 90. Seems like this is a good match!
You’d have to ask Pogba to play deeper but that shouldn’t be a problem. When Pogba knows he needs to put in a shift, he usually comes through. Just look at his two performances against City this year, last week against Liverpool, or even the 0-0 draw in 2018/19 against Liverpool. This is for big games, when you play against the smaller sides you can go back to the other way of playing where he has the freedom to push up more.
You’re not going to get the ‘best Paul Pogba’ playing like this, but you’re still going to get a damn good midfielder and when you do win the ball back, you now have a much better passer in the middle of the pitch than before. This in turn will make United a better team.
Given Pogba’s recent attitude and his desire to win, it’s a sacrifice he’d be happy to make. In fact we’ve already seen it in action. As we shift back to acknowledging that the Fulham match happened, look at the average positions of United’s players that match.
Pogba ends up deeper than Fred. Did that affect his ability to impact the match? You tell me.
Three games against the big boys (plus a League Cup semifinal that United only conceded on set pieces) with the McFred pivot showed us United could contain those teams. But in those games United never really generated a consistent attack. They had the best chances against Liverpool, but they only really had two chances. That’s enough to win.
That’s why Sunday is a great opportunity. is a cup match. Getting a draw does nothing. In fact, you can argue that win or lose, being level at full time and having to play an additional 30 minutes is the worst case scenario. In that regard it’s better to go for it and lose then to play it safe and end up level again.
Here’s a great opportunity to try something new (IE Pogba-Fred) against a good (but likely rotated) team. If it works then maybe you’ve discovered a new way of being able to play. Fred and Pogba are your two best and fittest midfielders and if you could have a Pogba-Fred, Pogba-McTominay, Pogba-Matic, rotation going forward that makes you a much better team.
If it doesn’t work, then it sucks to go out of the cup but in this season where you’re facing a logjam of games, not having extra cup matches isn’t the worst thing in the world. Plus you get to tell people like me “see, this is why that Fred-Pogba pair doesn’t work, now will you shut up about it?”
The worst thing United could do is approach this game with the same conservative approach they took in the league and lose. If you’re going to go out of the cup, I’d much rather see them trying to have a go at it and coming up short.
A very good article and it's obvious you don't rate mctominay at all, but man try and be open hearted to the guy.
He's actually very good and can improve.
Still a good analysis