Fitting in Manuel Ugarte

Manchester United have got their top choice midfielder - now what do they intend to do with him?

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Just minutes before Manchester United kicked off their season against Fulham someone in the bar said to me: “wouldn’t you say United got great value for (Matthijs) de Ligt and (Noussair) Mazraoui?”
I shrugged and responded, “How are we supposed to know? A ball hasn’t been kicked yet. £35 million looked like great value for Donny van de Beek and it turned out he stunk. How can we judge good value just yet?”

Typically I don’t like to talk about new transfers because we really don’t know anything about how these players will adjust to a new league or new city but mostly because the entire transfer cycle is extremely dumb. When the transfer window shuts next week articles will be written about who won the transfer window even though most of those signings will have yet to kick a ball. By Christmas - if not sooner - there will be articles written about the biggest flops from this summers’ window.

I’m not sure what’s more insane. The fact that we’re making those judgements after three months or the fact that people lap it up. If you sign a player on a one year contract and he’s not performing by December then sure, you can say that’s a bad deal. If you sign a player to a five year contract you can’t judge whether that’s a good deal or not in December. You can’t even judge it in May.

You’re not going to be able to accurately gage if a signing was a good deal or not until about three years in. If you sign someone to a five year contract that means you believe they’ll be a key part of your team for the next five years - maybe not so much at the beginning or not as much in year five but it’s more than just a year. If after three years the player is consistently in the team and playing well then that’s a good signing. If you have a good first year but spend the next four years on the bench with the club trying to push you out the door, then this wasn’t a good deal when the club made the signing.

Go on the internet over the summer and every transfer rumor will be met with bright eyed fans insisting x deal gets over the line because this is the perfect player for their club. Everyone is going to be a great signing, everyone is going to succeed, but in reality that’s rarely the case. Most transfers fail.

Former Liverpool Head of Research Ian Graham made his fair share of successful signings but even he outlined how difficult this was and how on any given signing the odds are almost against you.

From Net Gains by Ryan O’Hanlon

You can try to talk about how the player will fit in but that’s often futile as well. Last summer countless threads and articles were published as to why Mason Mount was a perfect signing for Erik Ten Hag and how he would fit the system. Then the season started and it turned out not even Erik Ten Hag knew how he was going to use Mason Mount.

I don’t know what Erik Ten Hag’s plan for Manuel Ugarte is. Maybe he comes in and Ten Hag completely changes the style of play with him in the team? I don’t know.

For now, I can only discuss the type of player Ugarte is and what United has shown in their recent games. From there, we can speculate on how these elements might intersect, though many questions remain unanswered.

At the very least, Ugarte provides a warm, experienced, body with youthful legs to provide defensive midfield depth. A week ago United’s backup midfield options were Scott McTominay, who isn’t really a defensive midfielder, and 32 year old Christian Eriksen - an attacking midfielder who’s been played deeper by Ten Hag but offers very little defensively. Ugarte is a big upgrade there and should hopefully provide that depth for the next five to seven years.

As for what Ugarte does. He covers a lot of ground and is an exceptional ball winner.

C: The Transfer Flow via Statsbomb

This is a profile United had two seasons ago when Casemiro was still playing at a World Class level. It allowed United to push their forwards higher up the pitch and launch a lot of quick counter attacks. When Casemiro’s legs went last season United didn’t know how to cope without this.

But other than ball-winning, Ugarte ain’t giving you much else. As Kim McCauley said, his possession numbers are “decidedly mid.”

Where does that leave you?

Occam’s razor says signing Ugarte hints at trying to lean into that counter attacking style United played in 2022-23. Ugarte would slot in for Casemiro, sit behind the pressing forwards, and clean up whenever that front five is bypassed. This would enable United to launch the quick counter attacks that Marcus Rashford thrives in.

United may have had success with that in 2022-23 but it may not be replicable in 2024-25. That style of play largely hinged on the ball winning ability of Casemiro - who played at a world class level. That world class level still lead to matches with big time defensive breakdowns and an inability to win away from home. United finished third that season but their +0.45 xG goal difference was only sixth best in the league. That’s a big improvement from 14th in the league, but still not among the best teams in the division.

If you get anything less than a world class level out of that Casemiro role, the whole system could come crashing down. Furthermore one of Casemiro’s key traits in that system was his ability to play quick passes to launch counter attacks right after winning the ball back. Ugarte doesn’t have that in his locker so the ball winning might still be there, but if that pass isn’t made quickly the number of potential counter attacks will be less.

The personnel is different now than it was then. Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford were very good at leading counter attacks. Alejandro Garnacho and Amad Diallo may be good at finishing them, but have yet to show that same ability when leading counters¹.

The other thing is that United team eventually got found out. Teams got wise to their attempts to counter attack and started defending against it. In the second half of the season United slowed things down and relied more on combination play. A chunk of their success came from Jadon Sancho’s presence and creating space for others. Neither Garnacho nor Amad have shown the ability to create that kind of space for others.

Reverting back to the tactics of the 2022-23 season is no sure fire way to have success. Maybe that’s not the plan at all? Perhaps the plan is to continue doing what their currently doing and just have Ugarte slot in to hopefully improve things?

Through two matches United’s buildup patterns have more or less been a continuation from last season, which suggests Ten Hag isn’t about to rip things up and drastically change things with the arrival of one player.

In possession United approached their first two matches the same way. The difference in execution was largely down to playing one team that was prepared to stop it and one team that wasn’t. They build up in this 3-1-6 formation with one of the midfielders dropping into the back line to form a back three and the fullbacks pushing up high.

It’s one of those two midfield slots where Ugarte would slot in but which one? One would assume the long term vision is for Ugarte to eventually take Casemiro’s place and play next to Kobbie Mainoo, but is that going to happen this season? In the meantime is Ugarte going to rotate with Mainoo and play next to Casemiro? That’s a very strong ball winning pair, but leaves a lot to be desired with their ability to progress the ball up the pitch².

Yes United need to fix their defense and not allow 17 shots per game. Ugarte undoubtedly helps in that regard. But they also need to score more goals and in order to do that they need to create more scoring chances.

The best way to do that is get the ball to your attacking players in positions where they can be dangerous. You want them receiving through the lines. You want them to get the ball facing the goal, to be able to run at defenders and make things happen. If your best attacking players - as United’s are - are your wide players, you want to get to get the ball to a focal point in the middle and then pass outward.

The 3-1-6 buildup shape United use has become pretty popular around the league, which has the knock on effect that more teams know how to play against it. Out of possession teams are setting up in either a compact 4-4-2 or compact 4-2-4 that squeezes the middle of the pitch.

It’s difficult to get the ball to that midfielder in the center of the pitch. The pass has to be precise, the receiver has to be comfortable receiving the ball under pressure, and have the ability to play in really tight spaces.

If that pass isn’t on, one of your midfielders is going to have to push wider. Additionally, your fullbacks are probably going to have to drop deeper to give the guys at the back some passing options.

Ugarte doesn’t really help in this manner. His forward passing is extremely limited, with him usually opting to make safer sideways passes that maintain possession and allow someone else to make things happen.

If Ugarte sits in the back three, he’s likely to make a lot of square passes to the center backs or wait for the fullback to come deeper as another, even wider, option. If he plays that middle position he’s likely to either pass back to the defenders or play square balls to someone like Lisandro Martinez who pushes up a bit wider, or to the fullbacks who drop deeper.

Now if you look at the rest of the signings United have made this summer - specifically Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui - you could say that Erik Ten Hag is looking for his ball progression to come from his defenders and not his midfielders. With the two Bayern Munich arrivals, Martinez, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, and Luke Shaw, United have a good collection of defenders who can play with the ball at their feet. In theory they can certainly take this responsibility off Ugarte and allow him to focus on other areas but I can also foresee a problem here.

As teams clog the middle, the space for ball progression in up the outside. Even with fullbacks dropping deeper, it’s not easy to get the ball back into the middle to Bruno Fernandes (or Josh Zirzkzee or whoever is playing striker). That leaves the only progression avenues straight up the pitch to your wide attackers.

Those lines are very straight, which means those attackers have to receive the ball with their backs to goal. This is not getting them the ball in dangerous positions. If the fullbacks step up and pressure them, they are pretty much restricted to passing straight back to where the ball came from.

With United unable to progress the ball through the middle, the only way to get the ball to Fernandes has been to have him venture out towards the wings. A look at his heat map from the first two matches shows United’s captain is not getting on the ball in the middle of the pitch.

Bruno coming onto the wing simply crowds the space of other players - which is partially what Ten Hag wants with causing overloads. But it comes at the expense of swift buildup and being able to play dangerous balls to the attackers. United were unable to play Marcus Rashford in behind against Brighton despite Brighton playing a very high line. With United’s slow buildup, by the time they get the ball to their dangerous attackers, defenses are long in position to defend against them, limiting their effectiveness.

As Ugarte doesn’t offer much in terms of ball progression or final third ability, it’s likely that this is going to continue. Therefore it’s hard to see him being transformative.

Ugarte is going to bring good solid depth to United’s midfield. He has that “bite” and some shithousery in his game, which will make him a lot of fun to watch. His skillset is going to be a major asset for United in big games, but likewise there’s also about 10-14 matches where his lack of certain abilities can hinder United.

United’s season isn’t going to hinge on whether Ugarte is good or not. There are plenty of scenarios where Ugarte is, in fact, very good while United themselves are still bad. He raises United’s floor in that he can help them lose fewer matches, but they still need to add that bit of quality in attack to help them win more matches.

In all likelihood Ugarte will be the player we think he is. If he’s that, he’ll slot in just fine and give United’s midfield some depth that it badly needs. I don’t think this changes the prognosis of United from the start of the season. The biggest improvements United need to make are more structural. If they don’t do that, they’re going to continue to stifle their top talent and find it difficult to get consistent results.

1. Now’s the time you’re going to bring up the winning goal in the FA Cup against Liverpool. Name another time though

2. Not to mention both have that “see the ball, try to win the ball” mentality which can lead to overcommitting and being dragged out of position